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Synopsis
New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble
"Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them."--Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works
We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.
Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.
"synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
Product Description
"Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them." -Steven Pinker, author of "How the Mind Works"We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.
Review
"Gardner leaves plenty of prognosticators squirming on history's thumbtack." -- The New York Times Book Review
"Hugely enjoyable." -- James Harkin, Financial Times "Gardner not only skewers the pundits who predicted constantly rising oil prices and a Japanese takeover of the world, he also explains why we buy their books." -- Jonathan Beard, New Scientist "A rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose . . . Future Babble will show you how to be a bit smarter than what you usually hear." -- Philip Tetlock, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.
- PublisherPenguin Adult Hc/Tr
- Publication date2012
- ISBN 10 0452297575
- ISBN 13 9780452297579
- BindingPaperback
- LanguageEnglish
- Number of pages320
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