Items related to Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why...
Synopsis
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
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About the Author
DAN GARDNER is a prize-winning journalist and author of Risk: Why We Fear the Things We Shouldn't — and Put Ourselves in Greater Danger. He is a senior writer and columnist at the Ottawa Citizen, and a popular public speaker. He holds a law degree and master's in history.
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The End of the World: A History
Published by
McClelland & Stewart Inc., 2010
ISBN 10: 0771035195
ISBN 13: 9780771035197
Used
Hardcover
Seller: World of Books (was SecondSale), Montgomery, IL, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Hardback. Condition: Very Good. New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them.--Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, hedgehogs who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while foxes, who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate. Seller Inventory # 00104564909
Stock Image
The End of the World: A History
Published by
McClelland & Stewart Inc., 2010
ISBN 10: 0771035195
ISBN 13: 9780771035197
Used
Hardcover
Seller: World of Books (was SecondSale), Montgomery, IL, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Hardback. Condition: Good. New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them.--Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, hedgehogs who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while foxes, who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate. Seller Inventory # 00110761101
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Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
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Stock Image
The End of the World: A History
Published by
McClelland & Stewart Inc., 2010
ISBN 10: 0771035195
ISBN 13: 9780771035197
Used
Hardcover
Seller: World of Books Inc, Montgomery, IL, U.S.A.
Seller rating 4 out of 5 stars
Hardback. Condition: Very Good. New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them.--Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, hedgehogs who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while foxes, who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate. Seller Inventory # CIN0771035195VG
Stock Image
The End of the World: A History
Published by
McClelland & Stewart Inc., 2010
ISBN 10: 0771035195
ISBN 13: 9780771035197
Used
Hardcover
Seller: World of Books Inc, Montgomery, IL, U.S.A.
Seller rating 4 out of 5 stars
Hardback. Condition: Good. New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them.--Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it.Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, hedgehogs who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while foxes, who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate. Seller Inventory # CIN0771035195G
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Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway
Published by
McClelland & Stewart, 2010
ISBN 10: 0771035195
ISBN 13: 9780771035197
Used
Hardcover
First Edition
Seller: Better World Books, Mishawaka, IN, U.S.A.
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Condition: Good. First Edition. Former library copy. Pages intact with minimal writing/highlighting. The binding may be loose and creased. Dust jackets/supplements are not included. Includes library markings. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good. Seller Inventory # 6277908-6
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Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Fail - And Why We Believe Them Anyway
Published by
McClelland & Stewart, 2010
ISBN 10: 0771035195
ISBN 13: 9780771035197
Used
Hardcover
First Edition
Seller: Better World Books, Mishawaka, IN, U.S.A.
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Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
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Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
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Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
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Hardcover. Condition: Very Good. No Jacket. May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less. Seller Inventory # G0771035195I4N00