Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better

Gardner, Dan

ISBN 10: 0525952055 / ISBN 13: 9780525952053

Published by Penguin Publishing Group, 2011

About this Item

Used book that is in excellent condition. May show signs of wear or have minor defects.

Seller Inventory # 11805949-6

Bibliographic Details

• Title: Future Babble : Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better
• Publisher: Penguin Publishing Group
• Publication Date: 2011
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 0525952055
• ISBN 13: 9780525952053
• Binding: Hardcover
• Edition: First Edition.
• Condition: Very Good
• Weight: 1.127 pounds

About this title

Synopsis

An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history.

In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.

In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

About the Authors

Dan Gardner is a columnist and senior writer for the Ottawa Citizen and the author of The Science of Fear. He has received numerous awards for his writing, including the Michener Award. Gardner lives in Ottawa.

Dan Gardner is a columnist for the Ottawa Citizen and the author of The Science of Fear: How the Culture of Fear Manipulates Your Brain, an international bestseller published in eleven countries and seven languages. He has received numerous awards for his writing, including the Michener Award and the Amnesty International Canadian Media Award. Dan Gardner lives in Ottawa, Canada,