Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better - Hardcover

Gardner, Dan

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0525952055 ISBN 13: 9780525952053

Publisher: E P Dutton, 2011

Synopsis

An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to debunk the whole expert prediction industry, and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history.

In 2008, experts predicted gas would hit $20 a gallon; it peaked at $4.10. In 1967, they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000, the USSR no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart- throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future- everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.

In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely he is to be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

About this title

Product Description

HardCover Pub Date: 2011 Pages: 320 in Publisher: Dutton Adult An award-winning journalist uses landmark research to show that the reputation of the whole expert prediction industry and explores the psychology of our obsession with future history In 2008. Experts predicted gas would hit 20 a gallon; it peaked at 4.10. In 1967. they said the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000; by 2000. the USSR no longer existed. In 1908. it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it. experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future-everything from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon. showing why our ains yearn for certainty about the future. why we are attracted to those who predi...

Review

"Future Babble is genuinely arresting...required reading for journalists, politicians, academics and anyone who listens to them." (Steven Pinker)

"In this brilliant and engaging book, Dan Gardner shows us how tough forecasting really is, and how easy it is to be convinced otherwise by a confident expert with a good story. This is must reading for anyone who cares about the future." (Paul Slovic, Professor of Psychology, University of Oregon)

"Well-researched, well-reasoned, and engagingly written." (John Mueller, author of Overblown and Political Scientist, Ohio State University)

"A rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose." (Philip Tetlock, author of Expert Political Judgement and Mitchell Professor of Organizational Behavior, Hass School of Business, University of California)

"It is a tour de force, absolutely outstanding" (Matt Ridley)

Edition details

• Publisher: E P Dutton
• Publication date: 2011
• ISBN 10: 0525952055
• ISBN 13: 9780525952053
• Binding: Hardcover
• Language: English
• Number of pages: 305