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Paperback. Condition: new. Paperback. The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability.
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Paperback. Condition: new. Paperback. The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. Shipping may be from our Sydney, NSW warehouse or from our UK or US warehouse, depending on stock availability.
Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bayesian Decision Theory | Marcel van Oijen (u. a.) | Taschenbuch | xiii | Englisch | 2022 | Springer | EAN 9783031163326 | Verantwortliche Person für die EU: Springer Verlag GmbH, Tiergartenstr. 17, 69121 Heidelberg, juergen[dot]hartmann[at]springer[dot]com | Anbieter: preigu.
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Buch. Condition: Neu. Druck auf Anfrage Neuware - Printed after ordering - This book describes how Bayesian methods work. Aiming to demystify the approach, it explains how to parameterize and compare models while accounting for uncertainties in data, model parameters and model structures. Bayesian thinking is not difficult and can be used in virtually every kind of research. How exactly should data be used in modelling The literature offers a bewildering variety of techniques (Bayesian calibration, data assimilation, Kalman filtering, model-data fusion, .). This book provides a short and easy guide to all these approaches and more. Written from a unifying Bayesian perspective, it reveals how these methods are related to one another. Basic notions from probability theory are introduced and executable R codes for modelling, data analysis and visualization are included to enhance the book's practical use. The codes are also freely available online.This thoroughly revised second edition has separate chapters on risk analysis and decision theory. It also features an expanded text on machine learning with an introduction to natural language processing and calibration of neural networks using various datasets (including the famous iris and MNIST). Literature references have been updated and exercises with solutions have doubled in number.
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Condition: New. Dieser Artikel ist ein Print on Demand Artikel und wird nach Ihrer Bestellung fuer Sie gedruckt. The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy d.
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Taschenbuch. Condition: Neu. This item is printed on demand - Print on Demand Titel. Neuware -The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader.Springer-Verlag KG, Sachsenplatz 4-6, 1201 Wien 128 pp. Englisch.
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Buch. Condition: Neu. This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware -This book describes how Bayesian methods work. Aiming to demystify the approach, it explains how to parameterize and compare models while accounting for uncertainties in data, model parameters and model structures. Bayesian thinking is not difficult and can be used in virtually every kind of research. How exactly should data be used in modelling The literature offers a bewildering variety of techniques (Bayesian calibration, data assimilation, Kalman filtering, model-data fusion, .). This book provides a short and easy guide to all these approaches and more. Written from a unifying Bayesian perspective, it reveals how these methods are related to one another. Basic notions from probability theory are introduced and executable R codes for modelling, data analysis and visualization are included to enhance the book's practical use. The codes are also freely available online.This thoroughly revised second edition has separate chapters on risk analysis and decision theory. It also features an expanded text on machine learning with an introduction to natural language processing and calibration of neural networks using various datasets (including the famous iris and MNIST). Literature references have been updated and exercises with solutions have doubled in number. 284 pp. Englisch.
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Published by Springer, Berlin|Springer International Publishing|Springer, 2024
ISBN 10: 3031660846 ISBN 13: 9783031660849
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Condition: New. Dieser Artikel ist ein Print on Demand Artikel und wird nach Ihrer Bestellung fuer Sie gedruckt. This book describes how Bayesian methods work. Aiming to demystify the approach, it explains how to parameterize and compare models while accounting for uncertainties in data, model parameters and model structures. Bayesian thinking is not difficult and .