Philip Tetlock Dan Gardner (94 results)

paperback. Condition: Very Good. All orders are dispatched within one working day from our UK warehouse. We've been selling books online since 2004! We have over 750,000 books in stock. No quibble refund if not completely satisfied.

Paperback. Condition: Used; Very Good. ***Simply Brit*** Welcome to our online used book store, where affordability meets great quality. Dive into a world of captivating reads without breaking the bank. We take pride in offering a wide selection of used books, from classics to hidden gems, ensuring there is something for every literary palate. All orders are shipped within 24 hours and our lightning fast-delivery within 48 hours coupled with our prompt customer service ensures a smooth journey from ordering to delivery. Discover the joy of reading with us, your trusted source for affordable books that do not compromise on quality.

Paperback. Condition: Very Good. No Jacket. May have limited writing in cover pages. Pages are unmarked. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 0.62.

Condition: Very Good. Used book that is in excellent condition. May show signs of wear or have minor defects.

Condition: good. May show signs of wear, highlighting, writing, and previous use. This item may be a former library book with typical markings. No guarantee on products that contain supplements Your satisfaction is 100% guaranteed. Twenty-five year bookseller with shipments to over fifty million happy customers.

Condition: Good. First Edition. Former library book; may include library markings. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.

Softcover. Condition: Gut. 352 p. Good. Cover shows mild wear. Clean pages. Sprache: Englisch Gewicht in Gramm: 520.

Condition: Good. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.

Condition: New. Idioma/Language: Español. Cada vez más, la sociedad contemporánea pide a los "expertos" predicciones sobre el futuro, y sobre esas predicciones se toman decisiones geopolíticas, de políticas públicas, de inversión, etcétera. Sin embargo, Philip Tetlock y su coautor Dan Gardner muestran, con un impresionante corpus de evidencia empírica recogida a lo largo de años de investigación, que los "pronosticadores expertos" tienen la misma posibilidad de acertar un evento futuro que un chimpancé. En contraposición, los autores se centran en estudiar a los "superpronosticadores": personas que tienen una gran capacidad de predicción. Y, curiosamente, esas personas son "gente común", no son especialistas, ni tienen acceso a información privilegiada. Porque predecir bien el futuro, enseña 'Superpronosticadores', tiene que ver con "un modo de pensar", esto es, con una mente abierta, cuidadosa, curiosa y autocrítica, que realiza una predicción inicial y luego meticulosamente la ajusta en función de cada nueva evidencia o información relacionada con el tema. *** Nota: Los envíos a España peninsular, Baleares y Canarias se realizan a través de mensajería urgente. No aceptamos pedidos con destino a Ceuta y Melilla.

Paperback. Condition: New. New; Pesquisas de ponta, histórias de sucesso e entrevistas mostram aquilo que realmente faz a diferença quando queremos prever o futuro.Todas as nossas decisões envolvem prognósticos sobre o futuro - agimos com base em previsões implícitas do que provavelmente vai acontecer. O problemaé que costumamos errar muito mais do que acertar. Em um estudo que durou vinte anos, o psicólogo e cientista social Philip Tetlock demonstrou que, ao prever o futuro, um especialista é apenas um pouco melhor do que um leigo. No entanto, com base nos resultados de uma pesquisa inovadora, Tetlock provou que alguns indivíduos têm uma extraordinária habilidade de previsão 60% mais precisa que a média. Superprevisões revela os segredos desse grupo de elite e oferece conselhos práticos sobre como podemos usá-los em benefício próprio.; 352 pages.

Daidalos, Göteborg 2016. 379 sidor. Förlagsband med skyddsomslag. Gott skick. ISBN 9789171734853. Originalets titel: Superforecasting. The art and science of prediction. Översatt av Henrik Gundenäs.

Condition: Gut. 1. 336 S. Gebrauchtes Exemplar in gutem Zustand. KEINE Eintragungen/Markierungen. - Wir versenden aus unserem deutschen Lager heraus in plastikfreien oder wiederverwendeten Polstertaschen. Sprache: Deutsch Gewicht in Gramm: 500 Gebundene Ausgabe, Maße: 15.5 cm x 2.6 cm x 21.8 cm.

Soft cover. Condition: New.