Herbert Hymanl (1 results)

Hardcover. Condition: Very Good. No Jacket. 1st Edition. THE PRE-ELECTION POLLS OF 1948: REPORT TO THE COMMITTEE ON ANALYSIS OF PRE-ELECTION POLLS AND FORECASTS, Frederick Mosteller, Herbert Hyman, Philip J. McCarthy, Eli S. Marks, and David B. Truman, hardcover, illustrated with tables, 1949. BOOK CONDITION: very good. The text block is in fine condition, with no tears, dogears, or marks. No bookplate or signature of a prior owner. Not a library book or remainder. The blue cloth boards are in very good condition. 9 x 6, 396 pages, 29 ounces XX All indications before the 1948 US Presidential election were that the Republican candidate, Thomas Dewey, would win. Instead, the incumbent President, Harry Truman, won. Consequently, analysts tried to figure out why the polls were so wrong. [From the foreword] The Council's Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls and Forecasts had the task of weighing the technical procedures and methods of interpretation used by public opinion polling organizations in attempting to predict the outcome of the 1948 presidential election. The conclusions reached by the committee at the end of an intensive review carried through within the span of five weeks were presented in a report which was issued on December 27, 1948. The committee's report is reprinted in this bulletin as Appendix A. The report of the committee is based on extensive studies of data on the polls and the election prepared by the committee's staff. Except for Appendix A, the present bulletin is composed of these studies. Appointment of the committee rested upon the judgment that extended controversy regarding the pre-election polls among lay and professional groups might have extensive and unjustified repercussions upon all types of opinion and attitude studies and perhaps upon social science research generally. In a situation of this kind research men have an especial responsibility to inquire into the practical applications which have been made of particular research techniques, and to determine to what extent errors were attributable to defects in the techniques themselves, or in their application, or in the inferences drawn. Because of its long-established concern with the search for new knowledge, the improvement of current research methods, and the ways in which findings are disseminated, the Council has for several years had an active interest in developments relating to opinion and attitude research. This interest was given formal recognition in 1945 by the establishment, with the National Research Council, of a joint Committee on Measurement of Opinion, Attitudes and Consumer Wants. This committee within the past two years has initiated inquiries relating to sampling methods, interviewer effect in attitude and opinion studies, and the use of panel methods of interviewing.