Tetlock, Philip,gardner, Dan (91 results)

Condition: Very Good. Ships from the UK. Used book that is in excellent condition. May show signs of wear or have minor defects.

Paperback. Condition: Good. No Jacket. Pages can have notes/highlighting. Spine may show signs of wear. ~ ThriftBooks: Read More, Spend Less 0.62.

Condition: Very Good. Used book that is in excellent condition. May show signs of wear or have minor defects.

Condition: good. May show signs of wear, highlighting, writing, and previous use. This item may be a former library book with typical markings. No guarantee on products that contain supplements Your satisfaction is 100% guaranteed. Twenty-five year bookseller with shipments to over fifty million happy customers.

Condition: Good. First Edition. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.

Paperback. Condition: Very Good. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction This book is in very good condition and will be shipped within 24 hours of ordering. The cover may have some limited signs of wear but the pages are clean, intact and the spine remains undamaged. This book has clearly been well maintained and looked after thus far. Money back guarantee if you are not satisfied. See all our books here, order more than 1 book and get discounted shipping. .

Softcover. Condition: Gut. 352 p. Good. Cover shows mild wear. Clean pages. Sprache: Englisch Gewicht in Gramm: 520.

Condition: Good. Used book that is in clean, average condition without any missing pages.

Condition: New. Idioma/Language: Español. Cada vez más, la sociedad contemporánea pide a los "expertos" predicciones sobre el futuro, y sobre esas predicciones se toman decisiones geopolíticas, de políticas públicas, de inversión, etcétera. Sin embargo, Philip Tetlock y su coautor Dan Gardner muestran, con un impresionante corpus de evidencia empírica recogida a lo largo de años de investigación, que los "pronosticadores expertos" tienen la misma posibilidad de acertar un evento futuro que un chimpancé. En contraposición, los autores se centran en estudiar a los "superpronosticadores": personas que tienen una gran capacidad de predicción. Y, curiosamente, esas personas son "gente común", no son especialistas, ni tienen acceso a información privilegiada. Porque predecir bien el futuro, enseña 'Superpronosticadores', tiene que ver con "un modo de pensar", esto es, con una mente abierta, cuidadosa, curiosa y autocrítica, que realiza una predicción inicial y luego meticulosamente la ajusta en función de cada nueva evidencia o información relacionada con el tema. *** Nota: Los envíos a España peninsular, Baleares y Canarias se realizan a través de mensajería urgente. No aceptamos pedidos con destino a Ceuta y Melilla.

Paperback. Condition: New. New; Pesquisas de ponta, histórias de sucesso e entrevistas mostram aquilo que realmente faz a diferença quando queremos prever o futuro.Todas as nossas decisões envolvem prognósticos sobre o futuro - agimos com base em previsões implícitas do que provavelmente vai acontecer. O problemaé que costumamos errar muito mais do que acertar. Em um estudo que durou vinte anos, o psicólogo e cientista social Philip Tetlock demonstrou que, ao prever o futuro, um especialista é apenas um pouco melhor do que um leigo. No entanto, com base nos resultados de uma pesquisa inovadora, Tetlock provou que alguns indivíduos têm uma extraordinária habilidade de previsão 60% mais precisa que a média. Superprevisões revela os segredos desse grupo de elite e oferece conselhos práticos sobre como podemos usá-los em benefício próprio.; 352 pages.

Condition: Gut. Zustand: Gut | Seiten: 320 | Sprache: Niederländisch | Produktart: Bücher.

Daidalos, Göteborg 2016. 379 sidor. Förlagsband med skyddsomslag. Gott skick. ISBN 9789171734853. Originalets titel: Superforecasting. The art and science of prediction. Översatt av Henrik Gundenäs.

Condition: Gut. 1. 336 S. Gebrauchtes Exemplar in gutem Zustand. KEINE Eintragungen/Markierungen. - Wir versenden aus unserem deutschen Lager heraus in plastikfreien oder wiederverwendeten Polstertaschen. Sprache: Deutsch Gewicht in Gramm: 500 Gebundene Ausgabe, Maße: 15.5 cm x 2.6 cm x 21.8 cm.

Soft cover. Condition: New.