Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples.

This is achieved by:

Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research.
Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities.
Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs.
Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences.
Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms.

An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

About the Author

Professor Anthony O’Hagan is the Director of The Centre for Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics at the University of Sheffield. The Centre is a collaboration between the Department of Probability and Statistics and the School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR). The Department of Probability and Statistics is internationally respected for its research in Bayesian statistics, while ScHARR is one of the leading UK centres for economic evaluation.

Prof O’Hagan is an internationally leading expert in Bayesian Statistics.

Co-authors:

Professor Paul Gathwaite – Open University, Prof of Statistics, Maths and Computing

Dr Jeremy Oakley – Sheffield University

Professor John Brazier – Director of Health Economics Group, University of Sheffield

Dr Tim Rakow – University of Essex, Psychology Department

Dr Alireza Daneshkhah – University of Sheffield, Medical Statistics Department

Dr Jim Chilcott - School of Health Research, University of Sheffield, Department of OR

"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.

Store Description

Visit Seller's Storefront

Seller's business information

BennettBooksLtd
CA, U.S.A.

Sale & Shipping Terms

Terms of Sale

We guarantee the condition of every book as it's described on the Abebooks web sites. If you're dissatisfied with your purchase (Incorrect Book/Not as Described/Damaged) or if the order hasn't arrived, you're eligible for a refund within 30 days of the estimated delivery date. If you've changed your mind about a book that you've ordered, please use the Ask bookseller a question link to contact us and we'll respond within 2 business days.

Right of cancellation

If you are a consumer you can cancel the contract in accordance with the following. Consumer means any natural person who is acting for purposes which are outside his trade, business, craft or profession.

INFORMATION REGARDING THE RIGHT OF CANCELLATION

Statutory Right to cancel

You have the right to cancel this contract within 14 days without giving any reason.

The cancellation period will expire after 14 days from the day on which you acquire, or a third party other than the carrier and indicated by you acquires, physical possession of the the last good or the last lot or piece.

To exercise the right to cancel, you must inform us, BennettBooksLtd, 7765 N Sheridan Rd, 60626, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A., +1 7733871973, of your decision to cancel this contract by a clear statement (e.g. a letter sent by post, fax or e-mail). You may use the attached model cancellation form, but it is not obligatory. You can also electronically fill in and submit a clear statement on our website, under "My Purchases" in "My Account". If you use this option, we will communicate to you an acknowledgement of receipt of such a cancellation on a durable medium (e.g. by e-mail) without delay.

To meet the cancellation deadline, it is sufficient for you to send your communication concerning your exercise of the right to cancel before the cancellation period has expired.

Effects of cancellation

If you cancel this contract, we will reimburse to you all payments received from you, including the costs of delivery (except for the supplementary costs arising if you chose a type of delivery other than the least expensive type of standard delivery offered by us).

We may make a deduction from the reimbursement for loss in value of any goods supplied, if the loss is the result of unnecessary handling by you.

We will make the reimbursement without undue delay, and not later than 14 days after the day on which we are informed about your decision to cancel with contract.

We will make the reimbursement using the same means of payment as you used for the initial transaction, unless you have expressly agreed otherwise; in any event, you will not incur any fees as a result of such reimbursement.

We may withhold reimbursement until we have received the goods back or you have supplied evidence of having sent back the goods, whichever is the earliest.

You shall send back the goods or hand them over to us or BennettBooksLtd, Sean Bennett ATTN RETURNS, 7765 N Sheridan Rd, 60626, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A., +1 7733871973, without undue delay and in any event not later than 14 days from the day on which you communicate your cancellation from this contract to us. The deadline is met if you send back the goods before the period of 14 days has expired. You will have to bear the direct cost of returning the goods. You are only liable for any diminished value of the goods resulting from the handling other than what is necessary to establish the nature, characteristics and functioning of the goods.

Exceptions to the right of cancellation

The right of cancellation does not apply to:

the delivery of newspapers, journals or magazines with the exception of subscription contracts; and
the supply of digital content (including ebooks) which is not supplied on a tangible medium (e.g. on a CD or DVD) if you accepted when you placed your order that we could start to deliver it, and that you could not cancel it once delivery had started.

Model withdrawal form

(complete and return this form only if you wish to withdraw from the contract)

To: (BennettBooksLtd, 7765 N Sheridan Rd, 60626, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A., +1 7733871973)

I/We (*) hereby give notice that I/We (*) withdraw from my/our (*) contract of sale of the following goods (*)/for the provision of the following goods (*)/for the provision of the following service (*),

Ordered on (*)/received on (*)

Name of consumer(s)

Address of consumer(s)

Signature of consumer(s) (only if this form is notified on paper)

Date

* Delete as appropriate.

Shipping Terms

Orders ship within 2 business days. Shipping costs are based on books weighing 2.2 LB, or 1 KG. If your book order is heavy or oversized, we may contact you to let you know extra shipping is required.

Shipping rates within U.S.A.

Shipping rates within U.S.A.
Order quantity	7 to 30 business days	3 to 14 business days
First item	� 5.17	� 7.40

Delivery times are set by sellers and vary by carrier and location. Orders passing through Customs may face delays and buyers are responsible for any associated duties or fees. Sellers may contact you regarding additional charges to cover any increased costs to ship your items.