This book by Richard Lum, an academically trained futurist, is a practical, straight-to-the-action guide for creating foresight in any organization. Written for today’s attention-stressed and resource-deprived manager, 4 Steps to the Future provides an easy-to-understand process for creating insight about the future that individuals can immediately begin applying within their organization.
Drawing upon almost twenty years of developing foresight within and for organizations of all types, Lum distills some of the essentials of good futures research and lays out a four step process for developing foresight. Beginning with an analysis of the history of any industry or company, the 4 Steps process leads readers through analyzing the present, forecasting alternative scenarios, and reformulating goals and vision.
Intended for managers and executives in need of easy-to-apply tools that can be used immediately within organizations, 4 Steps to the Future is written as a guidebook. Readers who are looking for a resource that provides them the guidance and tools to conduct a foresight project themselves, or who have to lead an upcoming foresight effort, will find this book an indispensable guide.
Complete with worksheets, exercises, and checklists for daily habits, 4 Steps to the Future is an invaluable resource for every organizational leader.
From the back cover:
"4 Steps to the Future provides a concise, pragmatic structure to think about business strategy in an environment where innovation is disrupting traditional approaches. A quick, engaging read with helpful examples, it shows one how to systematically challenge one's assumptions about how the competitive landscape may change." -Allen Uyeda, former President and Chief Executive Officer, First Insurance Company of Hawaii
"In 4 Steps to the Future, Dr. Richard Lum has created a unique and immensely practical manual that will be useful for anyone engaged in critical thinking and strategic planning, particularly those leaders who are responsible for developing strategic goals in the face of change and uncertainty. With very accessible explanations. he reviews the value and uses of foresight - a concept that, in the available literature, has previously been treated in largely academic and theoretical fashion. Without oversimplifying key ideas, he outlines step-by-step approaches for developing foresight and vision, particularly in terms of identifying and understanding the implications of external change."
-Malia Du Mont, Co-President and Chief Operating Officer, Axis Capital Inc., former Director of Strategy, Office of the Secretary of Defense
"This is an outstanding "how-to" book for anyone wanting to get started in the art and science of futures and forecasting. Dr. Lum struck the perfect balance of description, instruction, practicality and humor in this easy to read volume. If you are simply interested in learning more about the field of futures or are preparing to host your own workshop, this is the place to start."
-Stephen D. Kiser, PhD, Senior Innovator for US Pacific Command, former Special Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Richard Lum is an academically trained futurist and chief executive of Vision Foresight Strategy LLC, a foresight and strategic analysis firm based in Honolulu. His contributions were featured in the book Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight (2006), and he is the co-creator of the Verge General Practice Framework for foresight work, a framework used by foresight practitioners throughout the UK, in Europe, Africa, and Asia for horizon scanning, scenario development, and visioning work. He is an advisory council member of the Hawai‘i Future Caucus of the Hawai‘i State Legislature and is an adjunct faculty member of the University of Houston. He holds a PhD in Political Science from the futures studies program at the University of Hawai‘i.
