Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
Tetlock, Philip E; Belkin, Aaron
Language: English
Published by Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J., 1996
- Softcover
- Used
Seller: BIBLIOPE by Calvello Books, Oakland, CA, U.S.A.BIBLIOPE by Calvello Books
AbeBooks seller since March 19, 1998
Condition: Used - Fine
£ 31.92
Quantity: 1 available
Add to basketItem description from seller
Quarto in green and blue glossy wraps; x, 344 pages; 23 cm; bibliographical references (pages 317-335) and index. Contents: 1. Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives / Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin -- 2. Causes and Counterfactuals in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes / James D. Fearon -- 3. Counterfactual Reasoning in Western Studies of Soviet Politics and Foreign Relations / George W. Breslauer -- 4. Confronting Hitler and Its Consequences / Yuen Foong Khong -- 5. Back to the Past: Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis / Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein -- 6. Counterfactual Reasoning in Motivational Analysis: U.S. Policy toward Iran / Richard K. Herrmann and Michael P. Fischerkeller -- 7. Counterfactuals about War and Its Absence / Bruce Russett -- 8. Using Counterfactuals in Historical Analysis: Theories of Revolution / Edgar Kiser and Margaret Levi -- 9. Counterfactuals and International Affairs: Some Insights from Game Theory / Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. // World politics. History -- Philosophy. Counterfactuals (Logic) Thought experiments. Politique mondiale. Contrefactuels (Logique) Exp?riences de pens?e. Counterfactuals (Logic) History -- Philosophy. Thought experiments. World politics. Gedankenexperiment Geschichte Internationale Politik Aufsatzsammlung Internationale politiek. Counterfactual analysis. Teoria politica. Filosofia. Historia (teoria) World politics. History -- Philosophy. Counterfactuals (Logic) Political science -- Methodology. Aufsatzsammlung. Fine with very slight wear to edges. See photos.…
Seller Inventory # 93604
- Title
- Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
- Author
- Tetlock, Philip E; Belkin, Aaron
- Publisher
- Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
- Publication year
- 1996
- Condition
- Fine
- Binding
- Paperback
- Language
- English
- ISBN 10
- 0691027919
- ISBN 13
- 9780691027913
- Seller catalogs
- Politics And Social Sciences
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications.
The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.
"Synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
About the Author
"About the title" may belong to another edition of this title.
BIBLIOPE by Calvello Books
Oakland, CA, U.S.A.
AbeBooks seller since March 19, 1998
Shipping rates within U.S.A.
| Item | 5 to 14 business days | 3 to 6 business days |
|---|---|---|
| First item | £ 3.77 | £ 7.56 |
Payment methods
- Bank Draft
- Bank Wire Transfer
- Cash
- Check
- Direct Debit
- Invoice
- Money Order
- Paypal
Store description
Please visit us at Bibliope.com. You will be price-pleased! I have been buying & selling used and rare books since 1987, and selling on ABE since 1997. Your orders are very well-packed, and ship from Oakland, California, via the United Stated Postal Service, or UPS, and usually within 1-2 business days. We are mail-order only.
Specialty
Travel, Culture & Historiography, Science & Technology, Nature & Environment, Latin America & the New World, Material Culture, Non-Fiction, Scholarly, Spanish & Other Languages, Oceania, Small Press & Foreign ImprintsSeller's business information
BIBLIOPE by Calvello Books
CA, U.S.A.
Terms of sale
Books may be placed on reserve for one week. We pack all orders ourselves and, with nearly thirty years in the trade, strive to describe our books as accurately as possible. Refunds may be issued if an item is not as described and is returned in same condition as originally shipped. We accept most major credit cards, checks, money orders, Zelle. We also accept CashApp, Venmo and Paypal. For Paypal, additional nominal fees of approximately 2.5% may apply in order to cover Paypal's 5% commission.
Right of withdrawal
If you are a consumer you can withdraw from the contract in accordance with the following. Consumer means any natural person who is acting for purposes which are outside his trade, business, craft or profession.
Information regarding the right of withdrawal
Statutory right to withdraw
You have the right to withdraw from this contract within 14 days without giving any reason.
The withdrawal period will expire after 14 days from the day on which you acquire, or a third party other than the carrier and indicated by you acquires, physical possession of the last good or the last lot or piece.
To exercise the right of withdrawal, electronically fill in and submit a clear statement on our website, under "My Purchases" in "My Account". We will communicate to you an acknowledgement of receipt of such a withdrawal on a durable medium (e.g. by e-mail) without delay.
To meet the withdrawal deadline, it is sufficient for you to send your communication concerning your exercise of the right of withdrawal before the withdrawal period has expired.
Effects of withdrawal
If you withdraw from this contract, we will reimburse to you all payments received from you, including the costs of delivery (except for the supplementary costs arising if you chose a type of delivery other than the least expensive type of standard delivery offered by us).
We may make a deduction from the reimbursement for loss in value of any goods supplied, if the loss is the result of unnecessary handling by you.
We will make the reimbursement without undue delay, and not later than 14 days after the day on which we are informed about your decision to withdraw from this contract.
We will make the reimbursement using the same means of payment as you used for the initial transaction, unless you have expressly agreed otherwise; in any event, you will not incur any fees as a result of such reimbursement.
We may withhold reimbursement until we have received the goods back, or you have supplied evidence of having sent back the goods, whichever is the earliest.
You shall send back the goods or hand them over to BIBLIOPE by Calvello Books, Oakland, California, U.S.A., without undue delay and in any event not later than 14 days from the day on which you communicate your withdrawal from this contract to us. The deadline is met if you send back the goods before the period of 14 days has expired. You will have to bear the direct cost of returning the goods. You are only liable for any diminished value of the goods resulting from the handling other than what is necessary to establish the nature, characteristics and functioning of the goods.
Exceptions to the right of withdrawal
The right of withdrawal does not apply to:
- The delivery of newspapers, journals or magazines with the exception of subscription contracts; and
- The supply of digital content which is not supplied on a tangible medium (e.g. on a CD or DVD) if you accepted when you placed your order that we could start to deliver it, and that you could not withdraw once delivery had started.
Shipping terms
Orders usually ship within 2-3 business days. Shipping costs are based on books weighing 2.2 LB, or 1 KG. If your book order is heavy or over-sized, we may contact you to let you know that extra shipping is required. See SHIPPING TERMS above. www.calvellobooks.com