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Synopsis
Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the financial crisis to ecological disasters, we routinely fail to foresee hugely significant events, often at great cost.
In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the results of every state in the 2012 US election, reveals how we can all develop better foresight in an uncertain world. From the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to the economy, he takes us on an enthralling insider's tour of the high-stakes world of forecasting, showing how we can use information in a smarter way amid a noise of data - and make better predictions in our own lives.
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About the Author
Nate Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the internationally bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, which was published in a dozen languages. He writes the Substack 'Silver Bulletin'.
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The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
Published by
Penguin Books, Limited (UK), 2012
ISBN 10: 1846148162
ISBN 13: 9781846148163
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Seller: SecondSale, Montgomery, IL, U.S.A.
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The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction.
Published by
Allen Lane / Penguin Books, London, 2012
ISBN 10: 1846148162
ISBN 13: 9781846148163
Used
Softcover
Seller: BOOKHOME SYDNEY, Annandale Sydney, NSW, Australia
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1st UK p/b ed. Paperback thick octavo, very good condition, figures & graphs, rear cover little creased, some edgewear corner tips covers. Heavy, and extra postage may be requested to destinations outside Australia. 534 pp. Details the art of using statistics, probability and model-building as applied to prediction and forecasting in real-world situations. Many richly detailed case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the financial crash, poker and weather forecasting. An important need is for improved expressions of uncertainty in all statistical statements, reflecting ranges of probable outcomes and not just single "point estimates" like averages. Silver rejects much ideology taught with statistical method in colleges and universities today. The problem he finds is a belief in perfect experimental, survey, or other designs, when data often comes from a variety of sources and idealized modelling assumptions rarely hold true. After Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election, he was named one of the World's 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine in 2009. Seller Inventory # 17348
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The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction
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