Optimum Inductive Methods: A Study in Inductive Probability, Bayesian Statistics, and Verisimilitude: 232 (Synthese Library, 232) - Hardcover

Festa, R.

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 0792324609 ISBN 13: 9780792324607

Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1993

Synopsis

This book deals with a basic problem arising within the Bayesian approach 1 to scientific methodology, namely the choice of prior probabilities. The problem will be considered with special reference to some inference methods used within Bayesian statistics (BS) and the so-called theory of inductive 2 probabilities (T/P). In this study an important role will be played by the assumption - defended by Sir Karl Popper and the supporters of the current verisimilitude theory (VT) - that the cognitive goal of science is the achievement of a high degree of truthlikeness or verisimilitude. A more detailed outline of the issues and objectives of the book is given in Section 1. In Section 2 the historical background of the Bayesian approach and the verisimilitude theory is briefly illustrated. In Section 3, the methods used in TIP and BS for making multinomial inference~ are considered and some conceptual relationships between TIP and BS are pointed out. In Section 4 the main lines of a new approach to the problem of the choice of prior probabilities are illustrated. Lastly, in Section 5 >the structure of the book is described and a first explanation of some technical terms is provided.

About this title

Product Description

Optimum Inductive Methods Considers the problem of the choice of prior probabilities for Bayesian inferences. This book attempts at a 'coordinated development' of Bayesian statistics, the theory of inductive probabilities, and the verisimilitude theory. It is suitable for researchers and readers concerned with Bayesian inference. Full description

Synopsis

The problem of the choice of prior probabilities for Bayesian inferences is considered, with special reference to the theory of inductive probabilities and the analysis of the multinomial inferences provided by Bayesian statistics. Among other things, it is argued that the choice of prior probabilities in a given empirical inquiry should be suitably restricted by specific 'contextual constraints' such as the available background knowledge and the cognitive goal of the inquiry, where this goal is assumed to be the achievement of a high degree of verisimilitude. One of the most original features of the book is the attempt at a 'coordinated development' of Bayesian statistics, the theory of inductive probabilities, and the verisimilitude theory. This book will be of special interest to researchers and readers concerned with Bayesian inference and, more generally, to readers engaged in inductive logic, philosophy of science and statistics.

Edition details

• Publisher: Kluwer Academic Publishers
• Publication date: 1993
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 0792324609
• ISBN 13: 9780792324607
• Binding: Hardcover
• Number of pages: 208