Items related to Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
- ISBN 10 0393541983
- ISBN 13 9780393541984
- BindingPaperback
- LanguageEnglish
- Number of pages544
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Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
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Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
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Radical Uncertainty (Paperback)
Published by
WW Norton & Co, New York, 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
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Paperback
Seller: CitiRetail, Stevenage, United Kingdom
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Paperback. Condition: new. Paperback. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industrys actuarial tables and the gamblers roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no onenot least Steve Jobsknew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning packagewhat will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Shipping may be from our UK warehouse or from our Australian or US warehouses, depending on stock availability. Seller Inventory # 9780393541984
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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
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Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
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Radical Uncertainty : Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
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Radical Uncertainty DecisionMaking Beyond the Numbers
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Radical Uncertainty - Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
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Condition: New. Über den AutorJohn Kay is an economist and Fellow of St. John s College, University of Oxford.KlappentextSome uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry s actuarial tables an. Seller Inventory # 396945444
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Radical Uncertainty (Paperback)
Published by
WW Norton & Co, New York, 2021
ISBN 10: 0393541983
ISBN 13: 9780393541984
New
Paperback
Seller: Grand Eagle Retail, Fairfield, OH, U.S.A.
Seller rating 5 out of 5 stars
Paperback. Condition: new. Paperback. Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industrys actuarial tables and the gamblers roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no onenot least Steve Jobsknew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning packagewhat will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?demonstrate only that their advice is worthless. The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit. Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability. Seller Inventory # 9780393541984
Quantity: 1 available