Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an unknowable future - Softcover

King, Mervyn; Kay, John

Softcover

ISBN 10: 0349143994 ISBN 13: 9780349143996

Publisher: The Bridge Street Press, 2021

Synopsis

'A brilliant new book'

Daily Telegraph

'Well written . . . and often entertaining'

The Times

'A sparkling analysis'

Prospect

When uncertainty is all around us, and the facts are not clear, how can we make good decisions?

We do not know what the future will hold, particularly in the midst of a crisis, but we must make decisions anyway. We regularly crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have, forgetting that humans are successful because we have adapted to an environment that we understand only imperfectly. Throughout history we have developed a variety of ways of coping with the radical uncertainty that defines our lives.

This incisive and eye-opening book draws on biography, history, mathematics, economics and philosophy to highlight the most successful - and most short-sighted - methods of dealing with an unknowable future. Ultimately, the authors argue, the prevalent method of our age falls short, giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today.

Tightly argued, provocative and written with wit and flair, Radical Uncertainty is at once an exploration of the limits of numbers and a celebration of human instinct and wisdom.

About this title

About the Author

Mervyn King was Governor of the Bank of England from 2003 to 2013, and is currently Professor of Economics and Law at New York University and School Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics. Lord King was made a life peer in 2013, and appointed by the Queen a Knight of the Garter in 2014.

John Kay is a visiting professor at the London School of Economics and a Fellow of St John's College, Oxford. He is a director of several public companies and contributes a weekly column to the Financial Times. He chaired the UK government review of equity markets which reported in 2012 recommending substantial reforms. He is the author of many books including Other People's Money, The Truth about Markets, The Long and the Short of It and Obliquity.

From the Back Cover

'An elegant and careful guide to thinking about personal and social economics, especially in a time of uncertainty. The timing is impeccable'
New York Times Book Review


This major, timely and critically acclaimed work asks a vitally important question: when uncertainty is all around us, and the facts are not clear, how can we make good decisions?

In the wake of a global pandemic and a financial crisis before that, is it clearer than ever that we don't know what the future will hold. But because we must make decisions anyway our response is to regularly crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have, forgetting that humans are successful because we have adapted to an environment that we understand only imperfectly. This remarkable book draws on history, mathematics, economics and philosophy to highlight the most successful - and most short-sighted - methods of dealing with an unknowable future. Ultimately, as we have seen to our cost, the prevalent method of our age falls short, giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today. Radical Uncertainty shows how we can change that for the better.

'Rarely is a book's publication as well-timed as John Kay and Mervyn King's Radical Uncertainty'
Wall Street Journal

'Entertaining and enlightening . . . This is a necessary critique and they make it with verve, knowledge and a wealth of stories'
Financial Times

'An elegant, wise and timely book' Irish Times

'Jam-packed with erudition' New Statesman

Edition details

• Publisher: The Bridge Street Press
• Publication date: 2021
• ISBN 10: 0349143994
• ISBN 13: 9780349143996
• Binding: Paperback
• Language: English
• Edition number: 1