A variance decomposition analysis for Swiss housing and stock returns : An empirical analysis using aggregate Swiss housing and stock data

Language: English

Published by LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing, 2019

6139451892 / 9786139451890

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nach der Bestellung gedruckt Neuware - Printed after ordering - In this study, I use a variance ratio test derived from the Campbell-Shiller return decomposition to test whether there is evidence of a bubble in Swiss housing and stock returns for the period 1980 to 2016. Vector autoregressive models (VAR models) containing macro variables, i.e. real interest rates, real per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and a term spread variable, and cash flow data are used for the stock and housing market to model cash flow derived returns of the housing and stock market. From the Campbell-Shiller decomposition the unexpected housing and stock return variance is decomposed into cash flow and return news components. This analysis' findings are that while stock return volatility is driven predominantly by fundamentals like dividend growth, the housing market's unexpected return variance can also be explained mainly by the cash flow (i.e. rent growth) news component, although the variance decomposition is not very robust with respect to the underlying VAR-model. Finally, a variance-ratio test suggested by Engsted and Tanggard (2001) is computed to test whether there were bubbles in the housing and/or stock market.…

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Title
A variance decomposition analysis for Swiss housing and stock returns : An empirical analysis using aggregate Swiss housing and stock data
Author
Rudolf Marty
Publisher
LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing
Publication year
2019
Condition
Neu
Binding
Taschenbuch
Language
English
ISBN 10
6139451892
ISBN 13
9786139451890
Item weight
102 grams
Dimensions
220x150x4 mm

AHA-BUCH GmbH

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