A World Without Nuclear Weapons: End-State Issues

xiii, [1], 72, [2] pages. Illustrated front cover. Footnotes. Appendices. Foreword by George P Shultz. This work was sponsored by the Hoover Institution and the National Threat Initiative. A typed note is laid in, indicating that this copy was provided on behalf of Dr. Drell. This study's purpose is to stimulate further discussion and analysis, at both the conceptual and practical levels. For purposes of this study, we assume that the end state will be reached through successive stages of nuclear reductions that resemble the following: 1. The United States and Russia reduce to low numbers (200-500) operationally deployed warheads and bombs of all types; France, China, and the United Kingdom accept ceilings at less than 200; and India, Pakistan, and Israel freeze at then-current levels (assumed not to exceed approximately 100). 2. Each nuclear-armed state reduces deployed warheads to zero and non-deployed warheads to no more than 200, after which each nuclear-armed state might reduce the latter category to an interim number of 50-100 apiece. A variant could have a mix of 50-100 operationally deployed or declared reserve warheads retained by each state while all other warheads are eliminated. 3. Finally, each nuclear-armed state reduces warheads to zero while retaining monitored reconstitution capabilities within agreed parameters and for a period of agreed duration. Although those numbers are hypothetical, they provide a framework for examining key security issues that the United States and other nations will face as they approach and enter the end state. At the time of his death, Sidney Drell was professor emeritus at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC) and senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Drell was a noted contributor in the fields of quantum electrodynamics and high-energy particle physics. The Drell-Yan process is partially named for him. Drell was active as a scientific advisor to the U.S. government, and was a founding member of the JASON Defense Advisory Group. He was also on the board of directors of Los Alamos National Security, the company that operates the Los Alamos National Laboratory. He was an expert in the field of nuclear arms control and cofounder of the Center for International Security and Arms Control, now the Center for International Security and Cooperation. He was a Senior Fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution and an accomplished violinist. He was a trustee Emeritus at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, New Jersey. James E. Goodby has served in the US Foreign Service, achieving the rank of Career Minister, and was appointed to five ambassadorial-rank positions by Presidents Carter, Reagan, and Clinton, including ambassador to Finland. He taught at Georgetown, Syracuse, and Carnegie Mellon Universities and is Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus at Carnegie Mellon. Ambassador Goodby has worked with former Secretary of State George Shultz at Hoover since 2007. He is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. Selected for the US Foreign Service through competitive examinations in 1952, Goodby rose to the rank of career minister in the Senior Foreign Service and was given five presidential appointments to ambassadorial rank, including ambassador to Finland (1980-81). During his Foreign Service career he was involved as a negotiator or as a policy adviser in the creation of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the negotiation of the limited nuclear test ban treaty, START, the Conference on Disarmament in Europe, and cooperative threat reduction (the Nunn-Lugar program). Goodby is the author and editor of several books. He wrote At the Borderline of Armageddon: How American Presidents Managed the Atom Bomb. With Sidney Drell he wrote the essay A World without Nuclear Weapons: End-State Issues.…