The Polar Bear Strategy: Reflections on Risk in Modern Life

Why understanding the numbers behind our personal and collective decisions is essential to surviving in a complex world.. From cholesterol to cancer, asteroids to AIDS, we face more risks than our grandparents ever dreamed of. But most of us are 200 years behind the curve when it comes to making intelligent risk-based decisions: We refuse to fly, but dont wear seat belts in our far more dangerous cars. We panic about toxic waste dumps, but collectively smoke a billion cigarettes a year. In this entertaining and enlightening look at risk in the modern age, John Ross argues that the burgeoning science of risk assessment has given us powerful new tools to cope in a complex world, if we could only learn how to speak the language. Ross examines the building blocks of this new language, and helps us identify and relinquish long-held, often pre-set, biological and psychological responses to risk. Through vivid stories and compelling science, Ross empowers us to take control of our lives and to exercise our most basic democratic freedomthe power to make our own decisionsboth as individuals and as a society.

An informal interview with the author
Q: Can you explain the title? What do polar bears have to do with risk analysis?

A: Well, the title refers to a trip I took canoeing up in the Arctic. The group saw signs of polar bears and ultimately, we got into a shouting match about what to do.

Q: About how to protect yourself against an angry bear?

A: Yes. Who would take the gun, whether we should all take target practice, whether we had to post a sentry. That kind of thing. We just couldn't agree. Later, while writing this book, it occurred to me that if we had problems agreeing and understanding how to deal with a risk as straightforward as a polar bear, think how we are with many modern risks that aren't visible but may be around the next bend: a strange cancer, heart disease.

Q: We're not good at dealing with risk, are we?

A: Actually, no. In the Arctic, the group couldn't agree, so we ended up doing nothing. The shotgun remained in the kitchen duffle. If we had run into a bear, we would have been vulnerable. Similarly, in our daily lives, we often end up leaving the shotgun in the duffle. We have no strategy.

Q: How did you make the transition from explorer to risk-management researcher and author?

A: I spent many years climbing mountains, traveling to exotic places, running rapids and scuba diving, and I thought I knew the world of risk quite well. But one day, my pregnant wife and I visited our doctor who told us about some prenatal tests, and we had to make some important decisions. I realized that I knew a lot less about risk than I thought.

Q: Humans have always faced risks like polar bear attacks, or saber tooth cats or the equivalent, what's new about risks today?

A: We face a whole range of risks that our grandparents and parents never thought about. Should a woman undergo an amniocentesis when pregnant? How much fat should one eat per day to avoid heart disease 30 years from now? How aggressive should one be in addressing high cholesterol or high blood pressure? If your genes suggest that you may get breast cancer, do you choose a radical mastectomy before the cancer shows up?

Q: Do you think the media helps or hinders our ability to assess real risk?

A: The nature of media today is that information comes whizzing at us all the time, fast and furious. Because it's news, the exotic dangers — flesh-eating bacteria, for instance — get huge coverage. At the same time, big killers, such as stroke or car accidents, don't get much coverage because they're less exotic. So we tend to overrate the dangers of the exotic risks and downplay the more mundane, but often more deadly, risks.

Q: What do you mean when you say people often have an "optimistic bias?"

A: People often think they're better at doing something than they really are. Most people would rank themselves as "above average" drivers, for instance. Yet clearly not everyone can be above average. But when someone drives as if they're an above average driver when they're really not -- there's the rub -- this can mean problems.

Q: What's the riskiest thing you've ever done?

A: Before writing this book, I would probably have mentioned a time climbing mountains in Siberia. But, now, I know it probably was when I was 16 years old and drove home after having had a few beers at a friends' house.

Q: What do you do differently now that you've worked on this book?

A: For one thing, I ask more questions of the experts around me. I don't worry about every late-breaking story warning against some new health hazard. I just wait for more studies. I make sure my kids eat at least five servings of fruits and vegetables every day. And I think about buying larger cars.

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