Economic Structural Change - Analysis and Forecasting

Hackl, Peter and Westlund, Anders H.

ISBN 10: 3540538399 / ISBN 13: 9783540538394

Published by Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1991

About this Item

Near fine copy in the original printed boards. Particularly and uncommonly well-preserved; tight, bright, clean and especially sharp-cornered. ; 384 pages; With 101 Figures and 56 Tables. Subjects: Economics - Statistical methods. Econometric models. Economic forecasting - Statistical methods. 2 Kg.

Seller Inventory # 38922

Bibliographic Details

• Title: Economic Structural Change - Analysis and Forecasting
• Publisher: Springer-Verlag, Berlin
• Publication Date: 1991
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 3540538399
• ISBN 13: 9783540538394
• Binding: Hardcover
• Edition: First Edition.

About this title

Synopsis

Structural change is a fundamental concept in economic model building. Statistics and econometrics provide the tools for identification of change, for estimating the onset of a change, for assessing its extent and relevance. Statistics and econometrics also have de- veloped models that are suitable for picturing the data-generating process in the presence of structural change by assimilating the changes or due to the robustness to its presence. Important subjects in this context are forecasting methods. The need for such methods became obvious when, as a consequence of the oil price shock, the results of empirical analyses suddenly seemed to be much less reliable than before. Nowadays, economists agree that models with fixed structure that picture reality over longer periods are illusions. An example for less dramatic causes than the oil price shock with similarly profound effects is economic growth and its impacts on the economic system. Indeed, economic growth was a motivating concept for this volume. In 1983, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxen- burg/ Austria initiated an ambitious project on "Economic Growth and Structural Change".

Synopsis

In modern economic model building, structural change is a key concept. Economic growth and events like the oil price shocks have impacts on the economic system such that models with fixed structure are illusions. Considerable progress has been made in the last few years concerning statistical and econometric tools. Methods for identification of structural change, models that are robust to changes and assimilate their effects, and adequate forecasting techniques have been developed. Under the auspices of the International Institute for Systems Analysis (IIASA), a very active community of statisticians and econometricians has made a very influential effort in this area. The purpose of this volume is to document these activities, to present new methods and developments in this area, and to demonstrate applications. Particular weight is given to nonparametric and robust methods for identification of and modeling under structural change, a Bayesian approach to forecast combination, and time-varying parameter cointegration. The book gives an up-to-date status report on the field and should stimulate applications of the methods in empirical work as well as further research.