Lutz Vordermayer

Is that all?

Since my days as a student I have been reflecting on the question if there is more to history than chronology, family trees and narration.

Are there any patterns to be found, and if so - do they add up to a system?

Is history repeating itself - if so what are its cycles?

Is there any progress discernible in the course of mankind, and if so to the good, to more rational behaviour and good governance?

Ready answers would indeed be "brash", as Henry Kissinger has already stated in later years commenting on his thesis

But it is definitely worth trying.

History is evolving on three theaters and on each ground I have or I will reconcile mathematics and clio:

I have written a books on the impact of selected reforms in history, measuring the impact of reforms. If a reform rates above 1 it will have its permanent results on the history following it. Thus Reformation rates well above 3 while the European Union only achieve a poor 1.

Next I have calculated the likelihood of wars with an algorithm developed on the basis of 60 wars in history. I have published the first five volumes of my comprehensive analysis: Part One on my general approach, Part Two on wars in the ancient times, Part Three on selected wars in the Middle Ages, Part Four on wars in the early modern times and Part Five on 15 wars in the last two centuries. On the basis of these 60 wars Part Six offers acomprehensive statistical analysis which will also furnish an algorithm to predict future wars.

This project has now come to an end with the sixth volume Auswertungen und Projektionen.

This is the good news. The bad news is that most of it is written in German with the exception of Part One which is available in English under the title The Odds of War.

Also three case studies of current crises are existant both in German:

zur unordnung der welt, and in English:

world disorder.

Currently I am working on trhe translation of Part Six: Evaluations and Projections.

Finally I will approach the last central theme of history - revolutions.

I hope I will not be overtaken by history and granted some more time in the quiet of my study.

May we all be on the other side of the probabilities I have calculated!