The Yield Curve As A Forecasting Tool
Language: English
Published by LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing Mrz 2010, 2010
- Softcover
- New
Seller: BuchWeltWeit Ludwig Meier e.K., Bergisch Gladbach, GermanyBuchWeltWeit Ludwig Meier e.K.
AbeBooks seller since January 11, 2012
Condition: New
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This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware -This paper examines the ability of the yield curve to predict recessions in South Africa, and compares its predictive power with other commonly used variables that include the growth rate in real money supply, changes in stock prices and the index of leading economic indicators. The study also makes an attempt to find out if monetary policy explains the yield spread s predictive power with regards to future economic activity. Regarding methodology, the standard probit model proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1996) that directly estimates the probability of the economy going into recession is used. Results from this model are compared with a modified probit model suggested by Dueker (1997) that includes a lagged dependent variable. Results presented in the paper provide further evidence that the yield curve, as represented by the yield spread between 3-month and 10-year government paper, can be used to estimate the likelihood of recessions in South Africa. The yield spread can produce recession forecasts up to 18 months, although it s best predictive power is seen at two quarters. 112 pp. Englisch.…
Seller Inventory # 9783838349305
- Title
- The Yield Curve As A Forecasting Tool
- Author
- Melvin Khomo
- Publisher
- LAP LAMBERT Academic Publishing Mrz 2010
- Publication year
- 2010
- Condition
- Neu
- Binding
- Taschenbuch
- Language
- English
- ISBN 10
- 383834930X
- ISBN 13
- 9783838349305
- Item weight
- 185 grams
- Dimensions
- 220x150x7 mm
"Synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
BuchWeltWeit Ludwig Meier e.K.
Bergisch Gladbach, Germany
AbeBooks seller since January 11, 2012
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