Uncertainty in Climate Change Research

This edited volume with open access discusses all aspects of uncertainty in climate change research, with a unique emphasis on decision making under uncertainty and the assessment of various uncertainties in the landscape of decision making. By analyzing uncertainty through the lens of decision making, the book seeks to understand and assess the various uncertainties inherent in climate change research, including uncertainties in economic impacts, human health and vulnerability, fluctuations in the physical climate system, changes in infrastructure, and future climate projections. Very little published material exists on the uncertainties regarding vulnerability of different populations to climate change, and so the book characterizes the uncertainty in vulnerability to better formulate solutions to climate change problems in affected populations. The volume will be of interest to students, post-docs, early career scientists, and researchers interested in all aspects of climate change. 

After an introduction that addresses the issue of uncertainty in general as it pertains to climate change research, the book is divided into 5 main sections. Section 1 focuses on uncertainty in policy and decision making, and how climate-related policy choices impact risk management, impact mitigation, and adaptation. Section 2 discusses uncertainty in climate change impacts, including impacts in agriculture, water resources, transportation infrastructure, and human health and vulnerability. Section 3 analyzes physical climate uncertainties, such as Earth system projections, emissions concentrations, and sea-level rise projections. Section 4 details the methods for quantifying uncertainty from a statistical perspective. Section 5 concludes the volume with discussions on special topics and integrated themes on uncertainty, including ethics and uncertainty, communication, the economics of climate change, and integrated modeling for decision support.

Linda Mearns was a prominent climate scientist specializing in climate variability, climate change impacts, and the use of regional climate models. She held a Ph.D. in Geography and had decades of expertise in climate science and policy. She was a Senior Scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and former Director of the Weather and Climate Impacts Assessment Science Program. She contributed significantly to several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and led multiple interdisciplinary research projects such as the North American Regional Climate Change Program (NARCCAP). Her work focused on improving the understanding of climate risks and informing adaptation strategies. In 2016, she received the American Association of Geographers (AAG) Distinguished Scholarship Award.

Chris E. Forest is Professor of Climate Dynamics in the Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science at The Pennsylvania State University, specializing in the evaluation of climate models to assess long-term climate projections, impacts, and uncertainties. He is the Director of the Penn State Center for Earth System Modeling, Analysis, and Data. His research focuses on basic understanding of climate dynamics, quantifying uncertainty in climate predictions, and understanding how to use climate information for assessing climate risks. He has contributed to multiple high-profile climate research initiatives and interdisciplinary projects aimed at enhancing climate resilience. He holds a Ph.D. in Meteorology from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Hayley J. Fowler is Professor of Climate Change Impacts and directs the Centre of Climate and Environmental Resilience at Newcastle University. She advises United Kingdom Government on climate resilience, serving on the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Science Expert Group. Her research interests lie in improving the physical understanding of changing weather extremes and delivering high-resolution projections for climate adaptation. She won the EGU’s Sergey Soloviev Medal in 2024 and is an AGU Fellow. She is past-President of the British Hydrological Society. She is passionate about transdisciplinary working and regularly delivers lectures to engage the public on the climate crisis.

Robert Lempert is a principal researcher at the RAND Corporation and Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition.  His research focuses on climate risk management and decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty. Dr. Lempert was a coordinating lead author for Working Group II of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report and the inaugural president of the Society for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty. A Professor of Policy Analysis in the Pardee RAND Graduate School, Dr. Lempert is an author of the book Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Longer-Term Policy Analysis.

Robert L. Wilby is a hydro-climatologist and Professor of Hydroclimatic Modelling in the Department of Geography and Environment at Loughborough University, UK. His research focuses on the forecasting and management of climate risks to freshwater systems and urban environments. He co-developed the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) – a public domain climate scenario tool that has been used in numerous risk assessments, including for water resources, fluvial flooding and storm surge, air quality and urban heat stress. He was involved in the first three UK Climate Change Risk Assessments. He works extensively with Multilateral Development Banks and national agencies seeking to improve the resilience of built environments, water and energy infrastructure to climate change.