Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

About the Author

Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania and holds appointments in the psychology and political science departments and the Wharton School of Business. He and his wife, Barbara Mellers, are the co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study. He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics.

Dan Gardner is a New York Times bestselling author, speaker, and consultant. His three books on psychology and decision-making--published in 25 countries and 19 languages--have been praised by everyone from The Economist to Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman. Prior to becoming an author, Gardner was a newspaper columnist, talking head, and investigative journalist who won or was nominated for every major award in Canadian newspaper journalism. He is an honorary senior fellow at the University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public Policy and International Affairs and lives in Ottawa, Canada.

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Goodwill of Central and Coastal Virginia is a nonprofit dedicated to changing lives through the power of work. Every book purchased from our page helps fund job training programs, education, and employment opportunities for individuals facing barriers to work. From career coaching to skills development, we empower people in our community to build brighter futures. When you shop our books, you are not just finding your next great read, you are supporting a mission that has strengthened Central and Coastal Virginia since 1923. Give a book a second life and help someone start a new chapter of their own. Our mission is changing lives?helping people help themselves through the power of work. Through an earn while you learn approach, we provide hands-on experience, supportive services, and access to training that leads to real careers. Every purchase plays a role in advancing that mission and creating opportunities across the communities we serve.

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