The international bestseller

'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
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What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?

Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.

In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.
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'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist

'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent

'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

About the Author

Philip Tetlock is Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of several books on politics and psychology, including Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics and the award-winning Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Dan Gardner is a journalist, author and lecturer. He is the best-selling author of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway and Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear, which was published in 11 countries and 7 languages. He lives in Ottawa, Canada.

"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.

Store Description

In 2002, World of Books Group was founded on an ethos to do good, protect the planet and support charities by enabling more goods to be reused. Since then, we've grown into to a global company pioneering the circular economy. Today, we drive the circular economy through three re-commerce brands: - Wob: Through Wob, we sell. We provide affordable, preloved books and media to customers all over the world. A book leaves our collection of over seven million titles and begins a new chapter every two seconds, enabling more goods to be reused. - Ziffit: Through Ziffit, we buy. We give people around the world the opportunity to contribute to the circular economy, earn money and protect the planet, by trading their unwanted books and media. - Shopiago: Through Shopiago, we help others. By sharing the technology that has grown World of Books Group into the business it is today, we?re helping charities increase revenue and reduce waste through re-commerce.

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World of Books Ltd
Mulberry House, Woods Way Trading Estate, Goring-By-Sea, BN12 4QY, United Kingdom

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If you are a consumer you can cancel the contract in accordance with the following. Consumer means any natural person who is acting for purposes which are outside his trade, business, craft or profession.

INFORMATION REGARDING THE RIGHT OF CANCELLATION

Statutory Right to cancel

You have the right to cancel this contract within 14 days without giving any reason.

The cancellation period will expire after 14 days from the day on which you acquire, or a third party other than the carrier and indicated by you acquires, physical possession of the the last good or the last lot or piece.

To exercise the right to cancel, you must inform us, WorldofBooks, Unit 21 - Mulberry House, Woods Way Trading Estate, BN12 4QY, Goring-By-Sea, WS, United Kingdom, 44 01903 507544, of your decision to cancel this contract by a clear statement (e.g. a letter sent by post, fax or e-mail). You may use the attached model cancellation form, but it is not obligatory. You can also electronically fill in and submit a clear statement on our website, under "My Purchases" in "My Account". If you use this option, we will communicate to you an acknowledgement of receipt of such a cancellation on a durable medium (e.g. by e-mail) without delay.

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If you cancel this contract, we will reimburse to you all payments received from you, including the costs of delivery (except for the supplementary costs arising if you chose a type of delivery other than the least expensive type of standard delivery offered by us).

We may make a deduction from the reimbursement for loss in value of any goods supplied, if the loss is the result of unnecessary handling by you.

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We may withhold reimbursement until we have received the goods back or you have supplied evidence of having sent back the goods, whichever is the earliest.

You shall send back the goods or hand them over to us or WorldofBooks, Unit 21 - Mulberry House, Woods Way Trading Estate, BN12 4QY, Goring-By-Sea, WS, United Kingdom, 44 01903 507544, without undue delay and in any event not later than 14 days from the day on which you communicate your cancellation from this contract to us. The deadline is met if you send back the goods before the period of 14 days has expired. You will have to bear the direct cost of returning the goods. You are only liable for any diminished value of the goods resulting from the handling other than what is necessary to establish the nature, characteristics and functioning of the goods.

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Model withdrawal form

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To: (WorldofBooks, Unit 21 - Mulberry House, Woods Way Trading Estate, BN12 4QY, Goring-By-Sea, WS, United Kingdom, 44 01903 507544)

I/We (*) hereby give notice that I/We (*) withdraw from my/our (*) contract of sale of the following goods (*)/for the provision of the following goods (*)/for the provision of the following service (*),

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Shipping rates from United Kingdom to U.S.A.

Shipping rates from United Kingdom to U.S.A.
Order quantity	7 to 12 business days	5 to 9 business days
First item	� 5.60	� 9.00

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