Title: STOCK MARKET CRASHES: PREDICTABLE AND UNPREDICTABLE AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT THEM (World Scientific Series in Finance, 13)
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Co
Publication Date: 2017
Language: English
ISBN 10: 9813222603
ISBN 13: 9789813222601
Binding: hardcover
Condition: Good

About this title

Synopsis

Bill Ziemba has spent his professional life studying financial and other markets and their anomalies. His insights have been very valuable, time and again, for academic researchers and practitioners alike. A highly recommended read for anybody interested in financial markets. -- Gerd Infanger, Stanford University and Infanger Investments, LLC

This book presents studies of stock market crashes, big and small, that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble, we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.

We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond-stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there is almost always a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out-of-sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There, all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge 56% decline.

We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price-earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns, they all start with low price-earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price-earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better.

Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices. Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy is adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock.

We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016 2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but is not clear. For these, we present methods to deal with these situations.

The last three January February 2016, Brexit and the Trump election are analyzed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is: can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results.

This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.

From the Back Cover

This book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years. We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declin

"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.

Store Description

Selling quality used books for over 20 years

Visit Seller's Storefront

Seller's business information

Suffolk Book Center Inc
7 canal street, center moriches, NY, 11934, U.S.A.

Sale & Shipping Terms

Terms of Sale

We guarantee the condition of every book as it's described on the Abebooks web sites. If you're dissatisfied with your purchase (Incorrect Book/Not as Described/Damaged) or if the order hasn't arrived, you're eligible for a refund within 30 days of the estimated delivery date. If you've changed your mind about a book that you've ordered, please use the Ask bookseller a question link to contact us and we'll respond within 2 business days.

Right of cancellation

If you are a consumer you can cancel the contract in accordance with the following. Consumer means any natural person who is acting for purposes which are outside his trade, business, craft or profession.

INFORMATION REGARDING THE RIGHT OF CANCELLATION

Statutory Right to cancel

You have the right to cancel this contract within 14 days without giving any reason.

The cancellation period will expire after 14 days from the day on which you acquire, or a third party other than the carrier and indicated by you acquires, physical possession of the the last good or the last lot or piece.

To exercise the right to cancel, you must inform us, suffolkbooks, 7 canal street, 11934, center moriches, New York, U.S.A., 631-873-9746, of your decision to cancel this contract by a clear statement (e.g. a letter sent by post, fax or e-mail). You may use the attached model cancellation form, but it is not obligatory. You can also electronically fill in and submit a clear statement on our website, under "My Purchases" in "My Account". If you use this option, we will communicate to you an acknowledgement of receipt of such a cancellation on a durable medium (e.g. by e-mail) without delay.

To meet the cancellation deadline, it is sufficient for you to send your communication concerning your exercise of the right to cancel before the cancellation period has expired.

Effects of cancellation

If you cancel this contract, we will reimburse to you all payments received from you, including the costs of delivery (except for the supplementary costs arising if you chose a type of delivery other than the least expensive type of standard delivery offered by us).

We may make a deduction from the reimbursement for loss in value of any goods supplied, if the loss is the result of unnecessary handling by you.

We will make the reimbursement without undue delay, and not later than 14 days after the day on which we are informed about your decision to cancel with contract.

We will make the reimbursement using the same means of payment as you used for the initial transaction, unless you have expressly agreed otherwise; in any event, you will not incur any fees as a result of such reimbursement.

We may withhold reimbursement until we have received the goods back or you have supplied evidence of having sent back the goods, whichever is the earliest.

You shall send back the goods or hand them over to us or suffolkbooks, 7 canal street, 11934, center moriches, New York, U.S.A., 631-873-9746, without undue delay and in any event not later than 14 days from the day on which you communicate your cancellation from this contract to us. The deadline is met if you send back the goods before the period of 14 days has expired. You will have to bear the direct cost of returning the goods. You are only liable for any diminished value of the goods resulting from the handling other than what is necessary to establish the nature, characteristics and functioning of the goods.

Exceptions to the right of cancellation

The right of cancellation does not apply to:

the delivery of newspapers, journals or magazines with the exception of subscription contracts; and
the supply of digital content which is not supplied on a tangible medium (e.g. on a CD or DVD) if you accepted when you placed your order that we could start to deliver it, and that you could not cancel it once delivery had started.

Model withdrawal form

(complete and return this form only if you wish to withdraw from the contract)

To: (suffolkbooks, 7 canal street, 11934, center moriches, New York, U.S.A., 631-873-9746)

I/We (*) hereby give notice that I/We (*) withdraw from my/our (*) contract of sale of the following goods (*)/for the provision of the following goods (*)/for the provision of the following service (*),

Ordered on (*)/received on (*)

Name of consumer(s)

Address of consumer(s)

Signature of consumer(s) (only if this form is notified on paper)

Date

* Delete as appropriate.

Shipping Terms

Shipping rates within U.S.A.

Shipping rates within U.S.A.
Order quantity	5 to 14 business days	3 to 6 business days
First item	� 3.05	� 6.11

Delivery times are set by sellers and vary by carrier and location. Orders passing through Customs may face delays and buyers are responsible for any associated duties or fees. Sellers may contact you regarding additional charges to cover any increased costs to ship your items.