Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
Language: English
Published by W. W. Norton & Company, 2021
- Softcover
- Used
Seller: Patrico Books, Apollo Beach, FL, U.S.A.Patrico Books
AbeBooks seller since June 9, 2004
Condition: Used - Good
£ 6.21
Quantity: 1 available
Add to basketItem description from seller
Ships Out Tomorrow.
Seller Inventory # 260202002
- Title
- Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
- Author
- Kay, John; King, Mervyn
- Publisher
- W. W. Norton & Company
- Publication year
- 2021
- Condition
- Good
- Binding
- paperback
- Language
- English
- ISBN 10
- 0393541983
- ISBN 13
- 9780393541984
- Item weight
- 18 ounces
- Dimensions
- 4x0x6
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one--not least Steve Jobs--knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package--what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?--demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.
The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.
"Synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
About the Author
Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, teaches at New York University and the London School of Economics.
"About the title" may belong to another edition of this title.
Patrico Books
Apollo Beach, FL, U.S.A.
AbeBooks seller since June 9, 2004
Shipping rates within U.S.A.
| Item | 5 to 14 business days | 2 to 5 business days |
|---|---|---|
| First item | £ 3.02 | £ 7.57 |
Payment methods
Store description
Patrico Books is a small online book reseller in business since 2002.
Seller's business information
Patrico Books
FL, U.S.A.
Terms of sale
If you are not happy with your purchase you may return it for any reason within 60
days. Defective items will be refunded without having to be returned. Credit card
payments are processed by abebooks. Credit card is the only accepted form of
payment.
Right of withdrawal
If you are a consumer you can withdraw from the contract in accordance with the following. Consumer means any natural person who is acting for purposes which are outside his trade, business, craft or profession.
Information regarding the right of withdrawal
Statutory right to withdraw
You have the right to withdraw from this contract within 14 days without giving any reason.
The withdrawal period will expire after 14 days from the day on which you acquire, or a third party other than the carrier and indicated by you acquires, physical possession of the last good or the last lot or piece.
To exercise the right of withdrawal, electronically fill in and submit a clear statement on our website, under "My Purchases" in "My Account". We will communicate to you an acknowledgement of receipt of such a withdrawal on a durable medium (e.g. by e-mail) without delay.
To meet the withdrawal deadline, it is sufficient for you to send your communication concerning your exercise of the right of withdrawal before the withdrawal period has expired.
Effects of withdrawal
If you withdraw from this contract, we will reimburse to you all payments received from you, including the costs of delivery (except for the supplementary costs arising if you chose a type of delivery other than the least expensive type of standard delivery offered by us).
We may make a deduction from the reimbursement for loss in value of any goods supplied, if the loss is the result of unnecessary handling by you.
We will make the reimbursement without undue delay, and not later than 14 days after the day on which we are informed about your decision to withdraw from this contract.
We will make the reimbursement using the same means of payment as you used for the initial transaction, unless you have expressly agreed otherwise; in any event, you will not incur any fees as a result of such reimbursement.
We may withhold reimbursement until we have received the goods back, or you have supplied evidence of having sent back the goods, whichever is the earliest.
You shall send back the goods or hand them over to Patrico Books, Apollo Beach, Florida, U.S.A., without undue delay and in any event not later than 14 days from the day on which you communicate your withdrawal from this contract to us. The deadline is met if you send back the goods before the period of 14 days has expired. You will have to bear the direct cost of returning the goods. You are only liable for any diminished value of the goods resulting from the handling other than what is necessary to establish the nature, characteristics and functioning of the goods.
Exceptions to the right of withdrawal
The right of withdrawal does not apply to:
- The delivery of newspapers, journals or magazines with the exception of subscription contracts; and
- The supply of digital content which is not supplied on a tangible medium (e.g. on a CD or DVD) if you accepted when you placed your order that we could start to deliver it, and that you could not withdraw once delivery had started.
Shipping terms
Shipping is $3.99 for the first book and only $1.89 for each additional book. All orders are shipped the next or same business day.