RUSSIA'S COUNTERINSURGENCY IN NORTH CAUCASUS; PERFORMANCE AND CONSEQUENCES

The North Caucasus region has been a source of instability for the past several centuries. Most recently, Chechen aspirations to achieve full independence after the break-up of the Soviet Union led to two disastrous wars.

While the active phase of the Chechen conflict ended in year 2000--more than a decade ago-- the underlying social, economic, and political issues of the region remain. A low-level insurgency continues to persist in the North Caucasus region, with occasional terrorist attacks in the Russian heartland. . There are few reasons to expect any substantial improvement in the situation for years to come. Chechnya functions as a de facto independent entity; Islamist influence in Dagestan is growing, terror attacks continue, and the rest of the North Caucasus requires massive presence of Russian security services to keep the situation under control. Preventing the North Caucasus from slipping back into greater instability requires tackling corruption, cronyism, discrimination, and unemployment--something the Kremlin has so far not been very willing to do. "Small wars" in the Caucasus resonated as far away as Boston, MA, and more international attention and cooperation is necessary to prevent the region from blowing up.

This monograph examines the issues behind the continuing low-level insurgency in the Russian North Caucasus. It begins by analyzing the history of the bloody and contentious relations between the Russian and the North Caucasus Muslim nations, focusing specifically on the process of subjugating the region by the Russian Empire; the Caucasus wars of the 19th century; and the two Chechen wars and their aftermath, beginning in 1994 until today.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Ariel Cohen is a recognized authority on international security and energy policy, and the rule of law. He is a leading expert in Russia/Eurasia, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East, and serves as a Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy at The Heritage Foundation. Dr. Cohen frequently testifies before committees of the U.S. Congress, including the Senate and House Foreign Relations Committees, the House Armed Services Committee, the House Judiciary Committee, and the Helsinki Commission. Dr. Cohen regularly lectures at the request of U.S. Government institutions: the U.S. Department of State, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Training and Doctrine and Special Forces Commands of the U.S. armed services, the Central Intelligence Agency, and the Defense Intelligence Agency. He also conducts White House briefings and directs high-level conferences on international security, energy, the rule of law, crime and corruption, and a variety of other issues. Dr. Cohen consults for Fortune 500 companies and international law firms. He served as a Senior Consultant for Burson Marsteller's Emerging Markets practice, a global public affairs firm, and for Emerging Markets Communications, a boutique strategic communications consultancy. He has prepared expert testimonies and/or testified in high-profile cases tried by leading Washington law firms; and wrote expert opinions for investors who are involved in multi-billion dollar suits against illegal expropriations in the countries of Eastern Europe and Eurasia.

Dr. Cohen was a Policy Adviser with the National Institute for Public Policy's Center for Deterrence Analysis and has consulted for U.S. Agency for International Development, the World Bank, the Pentagon, the U.S. Senate, and Radio Liberty-Radio Free Europe. Dr. Cohen is a member of the Editorial Board of Central Asia and the Caucasus (Stockholm) and is on the Board of Advisors of the Institute for Analysis of Global Security, Endowment for Middle East Truth, and Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. He is also a member of the Council of Foreign Relations, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (London), and the American Council on Germany. Dr. Cohen has published six books and monographs, 30 book chapters, and over 500 articles in professional and popular media. He appeared on CNN, NBC, CBS, FOX, C-SPAN, BBC-TV, Al Jazeera English, and all Russian and Ukrainian national TV networks. He was a commentator on a Voice of America weekly radio and TV show for 8 years. Currently, he is a Contributing Editor to The National Interest and a blogger for the Voice of America. For 8 years, he wrote commentary columns for United Press International, Middle East Times, and has extensively written as a guest columnist for The New York Times, International Herald Tribune, Christian Science Monitor, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Times, EurasiaNet, and National Review Online. In Europe, his analyses have appeared in Kommersant; Izvestiya; Hurriyet; the popular Russian website, Ezhenedelny Zhurnal; and many others.