Quantitative Intelligence Analysis describes the model-based method of intelligence analysis that represents the analyst's mental models of a subject, as well as the analyst's reasoning process exposing what the analyst believes about the subject, and how they arrived at those beliefs and converged on analytic judgments. It includes: *Specific methods of explicitly representing the analyst's mental models as computational models; *dynamic simulations and interactive analytic games; *the structure of an analyst's mental model and the theoretical basis for capturing and representing the tacit knowledge of these models explicitly as computational models detailed description of the use of these models in rigorous, structured analysis of difficult targets; *model illustrations and simulation descriptions; *the role of models in support of collection and operations; *case studies that illustrate a wide range of intelligence problems; *And a recommended curriculum for technical analysts.

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Synoptic, erudite, authoritative, and useful, Quantitative Intelligence Analysis by Ed Waltz is a major contribution to our understanding of both how intelligence analysts think and how that thinking can be improved, not replaced, by advanced analytic methodologies.--Jeffrey White, Defense Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Studies; Former Chief of Regional Analysis, Defense Intelligence Agency

No one has worked harder, or with greater enthusiasm, to understand the practical and changing requirements of the working analyst in a fast-changing and dangerous world, or has been more productive in developing useful tools to address those requirements. As this book makes clear, Ed Waltz is a respected leader in a dynamic field to which he has made, and will continue to make, major contributions.--John Gannon, Former Deputy Director for Intelligence (DDI) at CIA, Chairman of the National Intelligence Council and Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and Production

This comprehensive book provides an authoritative foundation for both current and emerging intelligence analysis practices. Ed Waltz's long career using analytic models, simulations, and games is distilled in this detailed portrayal of modern intelligence analysis methods, covering scores of techniques and case studies. This is a valuable reference book for intelligence analysts, managers, students, and educators.--Peter Brooks, Research Staff Member, Institute for Defense Analyses

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