Long-Run Growth Forecasting
Language: English
Published by Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2008
- Hardcover
- Used
Seller: AHA-BUCH GmbH, Einbeck, GermanyAHA-BUCH GmbH
AbeBooks seller since August 14, 2006
Condition: Used - Fine
£ 69.24
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Add to basketItem description from seller
Gebraucht - Sehr gut sg - ungelesenes mängelexemplar, gestempelt, mit leichten lagerspuren - This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth in a large number of countries. It offers a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade. It is an attempt to fill the wide gap between the high demand for such models by commercial banks, international organizations, central banks and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of different theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates such as physical capital, human capital and openness. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way.…
Seller Inventory # INF1000411810
- Title
- Long-Run Growth Forecasting
- Author
- Stefan Bergheim
- Publisher
- Springer Berlin Heidelberg
- Publication year
- 2008
- Condition
- Sehr gut
- Binding
- Gebundene Ausgabe
- Language
- English
- ISBN 10
- 3540776796
- ISBN 13
- 9783540776796
- Item weight
- 483 grams
- Dimensions
- 241x160x16 mm
This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth in a large number of countries. It offers a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade. It is an attempt to fill the wide gap between the high demand for such models by commercial banks, international organizations, central banks and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of different theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates such as physical capital, human capital and openness. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way.
"Synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
About the Author
The author works for a commercial bank and has been the lead researcher in the bank's project called "Global Growth Centres 2020".
"About the title" may belong to another edition of this title.
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