Current World Status

The World's future is primarily a function of only a few key determinants-

• Population – 1.6 billion in1900 - 6.0 in 2000 - 11.2 in 2100?

• Standard of Living – Effects everything – personally and nationally

• Environment - Global Warming, Water, Land, Flora and Fauna

Independent of population, how nations deal with various issues, depends on that nation's current, living standard, educational level (intelligence), economic status, industrial development, governmental policy or form of government, and in some cases religion. One of the most important of these is the industrial status or level of development, as this affects wealth, food, energy consumption, and that nation's monetary ability to cope with many different issues.

On "Environment", there is is a fundamental conflict between the "Have" and "Have-not" nations specifically on global warming. The "Haves" are the current major contributor to the warming gases, while the have-nots are a key to the future for as they grow, both in population and in energy demand, they will contribute more to global warming and its problems.

One of the recognized measurements of the "Standard of Living" is that of total energy consumption per capital. The nation's "Gross Domestic Product" is also considered to be such a guide line by many economists. In my view GDP measures many functions which do no directly relate to the individuals living standard, e.g. Wall Street. Energy consumption is a clear measure of the factors which determine how people live – Income, Wealth, Food, Housing, Transportation as well as the "Extras" – TV, Entertainment, Books, Hobbies and the list goes on.

Energy – A Standard of Living

There a several approaches that have been used to quantify total energy use which include – Equivalent Barrels of Oil, Kilowatt-hours of Electricity, Tons of Coal. A difficulty with all of these measurement approaches are that they result in huge numbers, many zeros, and are therefore difficult for the mind to keep in perspective or compare. The unit that I prefer is designated by the letter Q, which stands for quads, or 10 (One with 15 zeros after it) British Thermal Units. A BTU is a measure of heat, and all forms of energy can be converted to heat. Specifically, one BTU is the amount of energy required to raise one pound of water (two cups) one degree Fahrenheit – not much energy and that is why Q is 1015. With this background, Table 1 summarizes how this Q value is distributed around many regions of the World.

This ratio, Q per Billion People, correlates well with a classical definition of a nation's wealth as well as characterizing the financial and living standard of the people. Table 2 summarizes a typical definition of Q values as related to the industrial development of nations. It should be noted that all of these numbers are rough estimates, as all such measurements have errors, are done by different organizations, and at different times and hence are difficult to correlate. Even rough estimates are useful tools in thinking about the issues and debating about a difference of 10%, or even 20% is a diversion.

These values of Q per billion people are a key to how we can think of the future. All of the nations of the World strive to move upward in the listing – all hoping to achieve the ultimate status of "Technological Man". Even those nations, e.g. United States that have arrived at that goal, still tend to increase their status, as this is an average, and upward mobility continues as the lower segments of the population strive for a better life.

Another key factor in developing the future issues and status of the World is the population, both current and projecting that growth into the future. The whole World totals are important for many issues, e.g. total food supply, water, land for farming, unique mineral resources and of course energy consumption. These, as well as many other factors are even more specifically applicable to individual nations and will be discussed in much detail later in this book.

An issue that affects every nation and continents of the World is that dealing with the environment. Global Warming is such an issue, a huge concern, and will be covered in a separate chapter.

Population - The World and the United States

Population is the driving force for many of the current issues in the World, both current and more importantly – the future. It is apparent that population demands determine the need for the many resources that individuals and society demand. The list goes on forever, but some of the more important topics include:

• Food - Certainly the most important

• Water - Personal, Agricultural, Industrial

• Land - To live on and to grow food

• Mineral Resources - Needed for manufacturing

• Energy - "Standard of Living"-Table 2

• Global Warming – Energy, but from where?

There are essentially three groups of countries in which population and growth is ether; not an issue, is of concern, or is already a disaster and getting worse. The highly industrial nations, the United States, the Western European group, Japan all have a population that is generally under control and will continue that way for at least the near term future.

The two most populist nations, India and China, are characteristic of this second group but there is a major difference between them. India, with a population of 1.2 billion still has a moderate growth rate and a significant rising demand from an increase in the standard of living. China, with a population of 1.4 billion, has a rising standard of living demand but seems to have population growth under control. It should be noted that they recently change the "Requirement" of one child per family to allow for two, which will result in a stable population level.

The third group: Sub-Sahara Africa, South Asia, Latin America, East Africa, have a large population, a total on the order of 2 billion, with an extremely high growth rate, and an major demand for an increase in the standard of living. Many nations in this group are not even into the "Advance Agricultural Man" of Table 2

Population Futures

In order to quantify the issues related to population Table 3 summarizes the projected growth of the regions of the World as developed by the United Nations. This is their "Median" values and after the table, the upper "limits", a scary prediction is discussed.

The possible range in projections to the year 2100 is wide. A "Low" UN estimate is essentially no change, although it is a slight decrease to 7.0 billion. The "High" is nearly unbelievable at 17.0 billion, an increase a 10 billion – more than double the current level. This high estimate basically assumes that the World population will continue to grow at the current rate, a very pessimistic and unlikely view of the future.

It can be noted from the table that nearly all of the population increase is in Africa. This is particularly worrisome for, as shown in Table 1 and Table 2, this continent is currently in the "Pre-machinery" age. Hence as they grow in population they will certainly also trend to up their energy status and Gross Domestic Product which will add an incredibly burden to World resources – food, natural resources, energy, etc.

It is useful to add to the population predictions how these regions will also increase their Standard of Living - e.g. GDP as measured by Q. This is much more speculative, but considering the wide range developed for the population predictions this cannot be that far wrong. Further, it is necessary to develop such data to adequately consider the future of the World. At least we know that all nations will trend upward, so that the Q per billion people will tend to rise – more in the undeveloped Nations but also in others, but to a lesser extent.

Future Energy

With these caveats, Table 4 has been developed and for convenience of comparison the data from Table 1 are included with their Gross Domestic Product as indicated by total energy – Q. Contrary to the usual situation that all Q per person values increase you will note that the USA decreases from 330 in 2010 to 290 for 2100. This decrease is based on the apparent fact that America is now at the top of the chain but that the country will continue to improve efficiency in manufacturing and energy use, both domestic and commercial. Europe, China, India all have had significant growth but the largest increases are for undeveloped regions, South America and primarily Africa. Africa is most important because their population growth rate is near the highest in the World – as noted nearly all of the World's population increase from 2016 to 2100 is in this region.

Part of this continued growth in Africa is the imbedded tradition and culture. Large families are revered in the African nations, eight or ten children per family, and this was historically a requirement for life. Many children and adults died as a result of the diseases and illnesses caused by bad water, malnutrition and inadequate medical care. Further, children were needed for the family farm – which provides most of their food. In the modern age the number of children per family has been going down but it is still high by World standards. Tradition is hard to change.

I commented above that the upper limit of the World population growth is a scary, 17 billion people – 230% increase from today. If, for illustration, it is assumed that this increased population's status would be at a 88 Q per billion level (the World average estimate for 2100 in the above table) the total energy for the word would be 1,500 Q. This is roughly three times the current value. This would be catastrophic when you think about, food, resources, land, and particularly global warming. These many issues will be addressed in the following chapters.

Projections into the future, particularly the far future – 2100, are invariably wrong as there are many factors which will cause changes that are unpredictable. Think how far off Thomas Robert Malthus was in his ultimate limits to the World's population. When the World had about one billion people, in 1789, he postulated that the exponential growth in population would relatively soon out-strip food supply – farmers can not keep up with the population's requirements. At the current World population at 7.3 billion we are along way from 1789, and only a relatively few people are starving. though many are undernourished. Will Malthusian philosophy apply to the current rapid population growth in Africa – a region with current food shortages? The UN has estimated that Africa will be the major population growth region of the World and even that estimate assumes there will be some reduction in family size, and hopefully with improved education the logic of birth control that could certainly happen.

One final thought on population is the concept, or perhaps scientific basis, for how large a population the earth is able to permanently support. This thought is highly debatable, but many scientists believe that when you consider the continuing degradation of the resources of the World – lowering of water tables, depletion of farm land yields, and even the washing away of farm land, at 7.3 billion we are already too large. Some social scientists have the opinion that about 5 billion would be a good limit. The long term future will determine who is correct.

Food

From prehistoric times to the present food and water are the key requirements to the survival of mankind, or for that mater, all other animals. Water, per se, will be discussed later, but food is a major World issue. It is debatable as to which comes first – population or food, but the two are directly related.

Thomas Robert Malthus in his book, "Essay on the Principle of Population" - published in 1789, was the first to relate and be concerned with the direct relationship between population and food. At the time the World, with a population of roughly one billion people, was still in the "Advanced Agricultural Man" stage – no machine farming. With the invention of a more practical steam engine by James Watt in 1781 the "Industrial Age" was beginning and rapidly expanding so that this major industrial development could not have been for seen by Malthus. He had the firm opinion that the World population would be limited by the food supply. He did not believe in birth control but thought that by marrying later, and with many earlier deaths due to malnutrition, disease, war, and famine population would be controlled.

Current Status

Now with 7.3 billion people in the World, and not too many dying of starvation, why was Malthus wrong? Two "new" conditions contribute to mitigate his conclusions.

• The Industrial Age – The giant, and smaller, diesel and gas driven machines (Plows, Harvesters, Processors) and other industrial technologies (Irrigation, Fertilizers) have increased a farmers productivity by many multiples from tens to hundreds.

• The Technological Age – The crops have changed historically by selective improvements and more recently by genetic modification. The yield per acre has been dramatically increased the use of man-made fertilizers, new pesticides, soil management, irrigation and optimizing the crop to the location.

These two bullets summarize the current key developments but some of the details are both informative and interesting. One of the early and simple improvements was the invention of the steel plow by John Deere in 1837. It greatly improved the speed and depth of plowing and it required significantly less energy. The company he formed went on to develop some of the most complicated farm machines that do everything that hundreds of individuals previously had to perform.

Typically, a single machine has the capability to, harvest, separate, clean, and finally load the crop into passing trucks. The trucks then bring this partially prepared food to the processing plant and where more automated machines further sort, clean, cook preserve and package the food for final distribution to the public. This very efficient mechanized process replaced the hundreds of people originally needed before the machine age became the key and major step in feeding the World.

The concept of optimizing a crop to a location has been around for a long time. It was obvious to even earliest farmers that some crops need more water, others did better if the soil was richer, and others tolerate less rain. Even average temperature has shown to have an important effect on the crop. For example, optimum average temperatures for best growth are roughly 59°F for wheat, 64°F for maize, 72°F for soy beans, and 74°F for rice. This latter example will be of even more importance as global warming continues and farming will probably have to adjust to different crops and perhaps move geographically.

As the food requirements of the World change in the future, how much more of an improvement in farming can be considered, or even necessary? A most critical input into future food needs relate to those nations with the largest populations, India, China, and in the future Africa. As these nations strive toward the "Technological Age", their food "Requirement" will certainly change. The USA can be considered the ultimate limit to such a change with a diet high in meat and calories per-capita with the consequential result of a farming technology (energy, land, machinery) that is many times that of developing nations

All of the above improvements, machine driven farming, improved crops, fertilizing, and pest protection, indicate that World food production could be very substantially increased. There is a question, a restricting factor, as many of these changes are brought about by the huge farming corporations, and these corporations are not driven by the "need for more global food" but by short term corporate economics - "Will this major investment produce a near term increase in profitability?" This brings us to a key factor in food production, the ability of the people to buy it – the relationship between poverty and food.

Food and Income

Among the poor of the World, 60% of the family income is required for the purchase of food. This number changes dramatically as the nation comes into the "Technological Age". For example, the United States spends a total of about 10% of their income on food with only 6% for home consumption and 4% of this total is away, restaurants, fast food, and snacks. However, for the poor, the 60% of their spending does not amount to very much money as would be necessary to develop greater production infrastructure.

The extreme poor are currently defined as having an income of on $1.25 per day per person and there are about 1.4 billion people in the World at this level. Their location is primarily in South Asia and Sub-Sahara Africa. This level of poverty obviously brings on malnutrition which further greatly increases illnesses and many times starvation. Surprisingly there has bean an incredible improvement in poverty over the eons - two centuries ago 95% of the population was considered to be in extreme poverty, versus the 20% today. Poverty doesn't stop at $1.25 per day as $2.50 per day is the income of half the people of the World, still poor but not quite as destitute. In a subsequent chapter "Inequality" will be further discussed.