In the 5000 years of the history that we know, great empires grew and fell according to certain patterns that repeat themselves like laws of nature. The USA rose and grew to prominence in the world, reached its zenith in 1945 with the military victory and with the atom bomb, but is not destined to stay there forever. The book tries to draw the attention to the signs of decadence that match the patterns of the decadence of previous empires in history, and the patterns of growth, of progress - in other cultural milieus: very few pundits in America, and in the western media in general, seem to be aware of this fact. The birth rates keep diminishing in America, and are very low in Europe. In other civilisations the birth rates have been high, and those countries count more in the world today, politically and economically, than a few generations ago. In addition, the irrational and passionate attitude of those peoples, including the aggressive suicidal attitude with religious and political connotations, is a sign of progress for them. Those people who are in favour of family planning programs and of a more relaxed morality - are acting against the general interests of their countries.

THE IMMINENT COLLAPSE OF AMERICA AND OF THE WHOLE WESTERN CIVILIZATION

By ANGELO BERTOLO

iUniverse, Inc.

Copyright © 2012 Angelo Bertolo
All right reserved.
ISBN: 978-1-4759-4982-7

Contents

Introduction...............................................................................viiForeword...................................................................................ixUS history from a "Fertility" point of view................................................1Reform in England and in Islamic countries.................................................5Summary of the paper Fertility and Progress................................................11The Indian Civilization and the Western Civilization as parallels..........................19Through GB Vico's eyes.....................................................................30Key concepts...............................................................................40"Le Rendez-vous des civilisations" by Youssef Courbage - Emmanuel Todd.....................51Science....................................................................................57Poetry.....................................................................................62The crisis of 1929 and that of 2008........................................................65Man creates religions poetry and science...................................................70Vico.......................................................................................74Ibn Khaldun and Vico.......................................................................89Darwin and Vico............................................................................93The relationship between the birth rates and progress......................................97Archaeology and population growth..........................................................111Paradoxes..................................................................................123The Tasmanians.............................................................................127Evolution of the institutions..............................................................131Murdercide.................................................................................147Letters to the editor......................................................................149

Chapter One

US HISTORY FROM A "FERTILITY", AND "IMMIGRATION", POINT OF VIEW

Welcome 300 million

Let us have a look at the history of the USA from this very particular point of view: from the fertility rates of the population, the growth of the nation, and from the evolution of the moral and religious sense which was very strong at the beginning and sometimes irrational (witches, intolerance, etc.), and has been slowly diminishing in the last 50 years.

Soon after American independence at the end of the 18th century, Benjamin Franklin, on his mission to England declared himself proud of the progress his country had achieved: the USA had democratic institutions, there was scientific and technological progress, the economy was prosperous and expanding, the population of the new nation was growing with immigration and with birth rates as high as a formidable 5.5%. This is the highest birth rate statistical datum I happened to meet in documented history. In modern statistics one must also take into consideration the death rates, of course. Thomas Malthus gave the same information a completely different interpretation. Franklin was an optimist: he had confidence in life, in the life of his people on this earth especially. Malthus was a pessimist. Notice that the neomalthusians today, those who are scared of population growth, reflect the very same position of Malthus two centuries ago when the world population was much smaller, less than one billion. In 1790 in the US the population was 3,200,000. In 1801 in Britain it was 10,500,000. There is more food at the disposal of every single person today than in Malthus' times, or even only fifty years ago.

The 19th century was also a period of scientific and technological progress for the USA, of political expansion, and of high birth rates, although a little less high than in the 18th century. Life was not so easy in the west where colonists emigrated from the east. The general conditions were not comfortable, but families were sound and numerous with many children. People had confidence in life, in life on this earth and confidence in life with a moral and religious dimension. We must not forget that somehow the two phenomena go together. You do not bear many children when your material conditions are already good, but when you have confidence in life. Together with the banks, the military forts and the schools, the colonists also brought with them the churches, which were of great social meaning. Today, California seems to be the most prosperous state in the US, the most projected into the future. Notice a parallel which seems to be trivial but it is not: in California the population has been growing more than in the other states. In 1995 the population was 29,800,000 inhabitants. In 2005 it was 36,600,000.

The growth of the US as a nation has always been marked with the growth of the population, both with high fertility rates and also with immigration: fertility first, immigration after, as an induced phenomenon, an important but almost secondary phenomenon. Immigration has been in general a positive phenomenon for the US, up to the very present day. People from other parts of the world are admitted in, they fit in the context of other people, of other institutions that have already been created, they share the general values and contribute to the welfare of the country. From this particular point of view, we must consider the history of the US not only from the Pilgrim Fathers and the coming of the first European settlers to the present day, but from earlier times. These first settlers were from the rising middle classes of England, of Europe: these classes were emerging against the feudal classes in Europe. The long history of evolution had started almost at the time of the Norman invasion, and earlier with the barbaric invasions. These colonists from the middle classes in the new continent organized themselves as a political community, and created civil and political institutions. Harvard University was founded very early, soon after they arrived. The immigrants that arrived from Europe at a later date were able to fit into this scheme, into these institutions, and contributed to the welfare of the country. Another important but almost secondary phenomenon that contributed to the growth of the population and of the nation was better agriculture and better medical science, and also the presence of a vast and rich territory. Today, with a different attitude towards life, medicine is used also to prevent life. The very first settlers from England were characterized by high fertility and high moral sense—in spite of their being irrational at times (witches, intolerance, etc.),—and by great confidence in life. High fertility is a sign of the vital driving force of a country, of a civilization, of a large social group of people, of a social class. Low fertility precedes decadence and death of that community. Both high and low fertility are almost laws of nature that precede progress and decadence respectively of a large social group, of a civilization, and are almost independent from the will of the single people and of the governance.

Before the Civil War the US was a developing country: I give the term 'developing country' a very positive meaning, a country that is growing and developing but that is not yet at the highest of its power, of its presence and predominance in the world. After the Civil War the US became a world power but its predominance in the world came after World War I and reached its climax at the end of World War II, with the military victory and the making of the atom bomb. After 60 years, the US is still a superpower—but in proportion the US is less influential in the world today than in 1945. Decadence has already started. Who are the peoples that dare challenge the supremacy of the US today? The Muslim peoples of the Middle East, the Chinese, the Indians, all peoples that have shown a high birth rate in the last 60 years, peoples that have also shown a high moral and religious attitude, despite the irrationality and fanatic attitude of the terrorists, and excessive nationalism. The US has shown a declining fertility in the very same period of time, and a slackening of their moral and religious sense. Europe fares worse. The Vietnamese who dared challenge the American power during the long period of their war showed a formidable 3% increase of their population under those conditions. Their vital driving force was strongest. The Arab challengers today also show high birth rates and very high moral sense—despite their irrationality, even more irrational than the Puritans in early US history.

I noticed this pattern of high fertility and general progress in many other historical contexts, different from today's world. This is not to say that high birth rates directly cause progress and expansion. But I notice that those peoples that expanded politically and created science and material progress had been endowed, at an earlier stage of growth, with high birth rates. Europe can already be considered dead and exhausted. Also Russia has an alarmingly low birth rate. I also noticed that developing civilizations with high fertility tend to overcome older civilizations that are endowed with higher technology, with more advanced science. Powerful and well organized armies, with advanced technology—are eventually defeated by armies of developing peoples who may be able to absorb their higher technology. The US is not going to be the most advanced country in the world forever, not for another thousand years—not even for another hundred years from now. Someone else will take their place in the world, I do not know with how much human suffering. Nothing is eternal in this world. The pyramids of Egypt are among the most important monuments of past splendor, but they are not eternal either.

Those people in the US who are in favor of abortion, of limiting the size of the family, in addition to the moral problem that they may face, a problem and an issue that is more serious than the issue on slavery in the 19th century, those people are working against the general interests of their own country: they are internal enemies; they contribute to social suicide. In addition, they do not understand the reasons behind the reasons of the progress of Asian peoples: Ted Turner, Foreign Affairs magazine, and the American media in general.

Chapter Two

REFORM IN ENGLAND AND IN ISLAMIC COUNTRIES

One only has to watch a documentary on the history of England in the 16th century with King Henry VIII and the Queens, Bloody Mary, Elizabeth and Mary Queen of Scotland to discover a parallel with what is happening now in those countries under Islamic regimes.

Protestant Reformation is a historical phenomenon which took place in Northern Europe at the beginning of the 16th century. It began on the Continent with Luther and Calvin but had its repercussions in England too. The Reformation, doctrinal in itself, was characterized by a strengthening—not always rational—of the moral and religious spirit against Roman Catholicism and against the Pope, and the implications were not only of a religious but also of a political nature. In order to fully understand the historical significance of this phenomenon, in situations which have been repeated many times throughout history, I have adopted the approach of G.B. Vico (1668-1744) towards history: men create religions. If this expression, create religions could appear exaggerated (but it is not), or a little difficult to understand, it is true to say that in certain historical epochs, we can identify an irrational strengthening of the religious and the moral spirit (and also the creation of a poetic language and poetry), with reforms both violent and non-violent (St. Francis) in nature, but always passionate with a perturbed and emotional spirit.

This is also a sign of progress: a population which is interested by this phenomenon is itself in an initial phase of its evolution and about to assert itself on the world's political scene, while other more rational populations are on the decline.

England found herself in this delicate initial phase of her evolution towards the conquest of a leading political role in the world at the time of the Protestant Reformation, compared to a more rational and more advanced Southern Europe with Spain as the politically dominant nation. King Henry VIII adopted the ideas and the examples coming from the Germanic world: the rebellion against the Pope and Rome, and against the power of Spain; he made them his own, to his political advantage. In England and in Scotland we have the emergence of individuals and situations of a religious and a moral nature which recall, to a certain extent, the various Ayotollah in the Islamic world today. Mary Queen of Scotland was bitterly criticized for her "immoral behavior" (John Knox) just as Ayotollah Khomeini in Iran criticized the habits of the Iranian women who, in his opinion, were too modern. He despised the women in the West (taking as his example the Parisiennes) holding them to be decadent and corrupt.

King Henry gained advantage from the new ideas, anti-Pope and anti-Spain. Queen Mary Tudor thought she could restore law and order and equilibrium to England with energetic policies and the persecution of the hotheads and the Protestants, but her actions did not appear too wise and they were not far-reaching enough. Her sister, Elisabeth, on the other hand, was much more far-sighted and intelligent; she was able to hold her ground. She did not adopt the new ideas and the new examples directly, and she did not directly persecute anyone; she tried to concentrate the whole energy of the nation on its future well-being, independently of religious faith, even if in the end, she, too, proved to be anti-Catholic and anti-Spain. With the same political ability she was able to discuss political and economic questions with Parliament, and hold her own, and she knew how to deal with the most ardent and impetuous men of her time. The Stuart Kings who succeeded her did not have her same ability and far-sightedness, and their internal policy, lacking in insight, led the Puritans to exasperation, to civil war and to the establishment of the Commonwealth. Oliver Cromwell, in fact, himself a Puritan, overthrew the monarchy. He was, nevertheless, to reveal himself to be a politician of exceptional capability; he put the general interest of England first and foremost, before the little-rational religious interests of the same Puritans. A number of Puritans were to leave for the New Continent, America, where they would be able to live freely according to their moral and religious principles. These Puritans, aggressive in character and not very rational, were to become the founders of a new nation, a new civilization founded on religious and moral bases. Later, the age of religious extremism was to evolve into a period with more rational lifestyles and into the more tolerant atmosphere of the Enlightenment. But in these two centuries, which were fundamental to the history of England, we can distinguish diverse episodes of intolerance, both religious and moral, numerous plots and attacks, and irrational attitudes. Those politicians who were more enlightened knew how to overcome difficult situations and even to gain advantage from them, both at home faced with the more irrational and impetuous members of all the political groups, and abroad, on the seas, when dealing with other dominant world powers, independently of their religious beliefs.

In the Islamic world today we are faced with a situation which is very similar to that in Northern Europe and England after the Protestant Reformation, when men strengthened their irrational moral and religious spirit, when men looked at the world with a perturbed and emotional soul, when they were growing and asserting themselves in the world, while other more rational populations were in a phase of decline and decadence. The Islamic peoples, too, later—in a few centuries time, or at least, within a few generations, are destined to become more rational and to lose some of that aggressiveness which characterizes them today, and, indeed, is also characteristic of those Englishmen who fought against the Spaniards and of the Puritans both in England and on the American Continent. Who little by little, became more rational. All the Islamic nations today count for more in the world politically than they did one or two generations ago. The Islamic peoples today are aggressive and arrogant towards the more rational western civilizations, as were the Puritans and the English people in general towards the Catholics and towards Spain, the most powerful nation in the world at that time.

How do politicians in the Muslim countries today behave in front of the phenomenon of extremism? Our information regarding this argument comes from the outside, provided by journalists, and thus we cannot evaluate with precision the political importance of the phenomenon, which should be seen in its particular historical context. We lack, in fact, a temporal historical perspective. However, the general character is very similar to that of the Protestant Reformation in England and in Northern Europe in the 16th and the 17th centuries, at the beginning of a period of progress for those populations. The more specific characteristics are different, as are the arts and other manifestations of every civilization. The irrational phenomenon of the suicide terrorists is particular to the Islamic extremists today. Another difference can be seen in the fact that, whereas for the peoples of the Christian faith, politics and religion are on two different planes which rarely coincide, for the peoples of the Islamic faith, religion and the political life go hand in hand. (Consider, however, the fact that the Republic of Ireland remains Catholic in political contrast with the dominant Protestant England, and that Poland remains Catholic to distinguish herself from Protestant Germany and Orthodox Russia).

Ibn Khaldun (1332-1406), historian and philosopher, the Arabian Vico, described the religiosity and the irrational, aggressive attitudes of the Berberic tribes and the Arabs at the time of their expansion into Mediterranean territories immediately following the death of Mohammed. Consider also the increase in the population and the fact that the psychological religious factor plays an important part in the Islam religion; it binds and unites all the Arab tribes and directs them towards a common objective. Religion becomes an anthropological and cultural element which contributes to the process of concentrating all the energies of a population on political objectives of a historical character, like the conquest of the world, for example, independently of the intrinsic value of the religion itself, of the pureness of the ideals one lives and fights for. This fact can be easily exploited by those politicians gifted with Machiavellian intelligence: an Ayotollah, for example, or another political Head of State indoctrinates his patriotic young people, promises them paradise with virgins who come to welcome them, and sends them to meet an enemy target with their belts laden with explosives.

(Continues...)

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