600 Seiten Buch ist durch Druckstellen etwas verlagert (durchgebogen), kleine Lagerspuren am Buch, Inhalt einwandfrei und ungelesen, CD unbenutzt Sprache: Englisch Gewicht in Gramm: 1220 23,4 x 17,8 x 3,0 cm, Gebundene Ausgabe.

Seller Inventory # 124507

Contact seller

Report this item

Bibliographic Details

Title

Forecasting. Practice and Process for Demand Management

Publisher

Cengage Learning Emea 22.07.2005.

Publication Date

2005

Language

English

ISBN 10

0534262686

ISBN 13

9780534262686

Binding

Hardcover

Edition

Auflage: Student Ed.

Condition

Gut

Weight

1220 grams

Seller catalogs

B�cher

About this title

Synopsis

How do forecast managers and planners create forecasts for products and services? FORECASTING: PRACTICE AND PROCESS FOR DEMAND MANAGEMENT covers topics ranging from macroeconomic forecasting procedures to specific product-level forecasting. This is a must-have book for anyone interested in pursuing this field!

Review

Part I: INTRODUCING THE FORECASTING PROCESS. 1. Forecasting as a Structured Process. Inside the Crystal Ball. Is Forecasting Worthwhile? Creating a Structured Forecasting Process. Establishing an Effective Demand Forecasting Strategy. Summary. References. Problems. Useful Reading. Cases. 2. Classifying Forecasting Techniques. Selecting a Forecasting Technique. A Life Cycle Perspective. Market Research. New Product Introductions. Promotions and Special Events. Sales Force Composites and Customer Collaboration. Neural Nets for Forecasting. The Prototypical Forecasting Application: Projecting Historical Patterns. Computer Study: How to Forecast with Weighted Averages. Summary. References. Problems. Useful Reading. Cases. Part II: EXPLORING TIME SERIES. 3. Data Exploration for Forecasting. Exploring Data. Creating Data Summaries. Displaying Data Summaries. Serially Correlated Data. What Does Normality Have to Do with It? The Need for Nontraditional Methods. Summary. References. Problems. Useful Reading. Cases. Appendix A: The Need for Robustness in Correlation. Appendix B: Comparing Estimation Techniques. 4. Characteristics of Time Series. Visualizing Components in a Time Series. A First Look at Trend and Seasonality. What is Stationarity? Classifying Trends. Computer Study: How to Detect Trends. Summary. References. Problems. Computer Exercises. Useful Reading. Cases. Appendix A: A Two-Way Table Decomposition. 5. Assessing Accuracy of Forecasts. The Need to Measure Forecast Accuracy. Ways to Evaluate Accuracy. Measures of Forecast Accuracy. Comparing with Naive Techniques. Tracking Tools. Computer Study: How to Monitor Forecasts. Summary. References. Problems. Useful Reading. Cases. Part III: FORECASTING THE AGGREGATE. 6. Dealing with Seasonal Fluctuations. Seasonal Influences. The Ratio-to-Moving Average Method. Additive and Multiplicative Seasonal Decompositions. Census Seasonal Adjustment Method. Resistant Smoothing. Computer Study: How to Detect Seasonal Cycles-Formalwear Rental Revenue. Summary. References. Problems. Computer Exercises. Useful Reading. Cases. 7. Forecasting the Business Environment. Forecasting with Economic Indicators. Trend-Cycle Forecasting with Turning Points. Using Elasticities. Econometrics and Business Forecasting. Computer Study: Using "Pressures" to Analyze Business Cycles. Summary. References. Problems. Computer Exercises. Useful Reading. Cases. Part IV: APPLYING BOTTOM-UP TECHNIQUES. 8. The Exponential Smoothing Method. What is Exponential Smoothing? Smoothing Weights. Types of Smoothing Techniques. Smoothing Levels and Constant Change. Damped and Exponential Trends. Seasonal Models. Handling Special Events with Smoothing Models. Summary. References. Problems. Computer Exercises. Useful Reading. Cases. Appendix. 9. Disaggregate Product-Demand Forecasting. Forecasting for the Supply Chain. A Framework for an Integrated Demand Forecasting System. Automated Statistical Forecasting. Disaggregate Product-Demand Forecasting Checklist. Computer Study: How to Create a Time-Phased Replenishment Plan. Summary. References. Problems. Computer Exercises. Useful Reading. Cases. Part V: FORECASTING WITH CAUSAL FORECASTING MODELS. 10. Creating and Analyzing Causal Forecasting Models. A Model Building Strategy. What are Regression Models? Creating Multiple Linear Regression Models. Learning from Residual Patterns. Validating Preliminary Modeling Assumptions. Computer Study: How to Forecast with Transformed Data. Summary. References. Problems. Computer Exercises. Useful Reading. Cases. Appendix: Achieving Linearity. 11. Linear Regression Analysis. Graphing Relationships. Creating and Interpreting Output. Making Inferences about Model Parameters. Autocorrelation Correction. Summary. References. Problems. Computer Exercises. Useful Reading. Cases. 12. Forecasting with Regression Models. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis. Assessing Model Adequacy. Selecting Variables. Indicators for Qualitative Variables. Analyzing Residuals. The Need for Robustness in Regression. Multiple Regression Checklist. Computer Study: How to Forecast with Qualitative Variables. Summary. References. Computer Exercises. Useful Reading. Cases. Part VI: FORECASTING WITH ARIMA MODELS. 13. Building ARIMA Models: The Box-Jenkins Approach. Why Use ARIMA Models for Forecasting? The Linear Filter Model as A Black Box. A Model Building Strategy. Identification: Interpreting ACF and PACF. Identifying Nonseasonal ARIMA Models. Estimation: Fitting Models to Data. Diagnostic Checking: Validating Model Adequacy. Implementing Nonseasonal ARIMA Models. Identifying Seasonal ARIMA Models. Implementing Seasonal ARIMA Models. ARIMA Modeling Checklist. Summary. References. Problems. Computer Exercises. Useful Reading. Cases. 14. Forecasting with ARIMA Models. ARIMA Models for Forecasting. Models for Forecasting Stationary Time Series. Models for Nonstationary Time Series. Seasonal ARIMA Models. Forecast Probability Limits. ARIMA Forecasting Checklist. Summary. References. Problems. Computer Exercises. Useful Reading. Cases. Appendix A: Expressing ARIMA Models in Compact Form. Appendix B: Forecast Error and Forecast Variance for ARIMA Models. Part VII: IMPROVING FORECASTING EFFECTIVENESS. 15. Selecting the Final Forecast Number. Preparing Forecast Scenarios. Establishing Credibility. Using Forecasting Simulations. Designing Forecasting Simulations. Reconciling Sales Force and Customer Inputs. Gaining Acceptance from Management. The Forecaster's Checklist. Summary. References. Case. Useful Reading. Cases. 16. Implementing the Forecasting Process. PEERing into the Future. A Framework for Process Improvement. An Implementation Checklist. Using "Virtual" Forecasting Services. The Forecasting Manager's Checklists. Summary. References. Useful Reading. Cases. Glossary.

"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.

Store Description

Widerrufsrecht Sie haben das Recht, binnen vierzehn Tagen ohne Angabe von Gr�nden den Vertrag zu widerrufen. Die Widerrufsfrist betr�gt vierzehn Tage ab dem Tag �an dem Sie oder ein von Ihnen benannter Dritter, der nicht der Bef�rderer ist, die Waren in Besitz genommen haben bzw. hat wenn Sie eine Ware oder mehrere Waren im Rahmen einer einheitlichen Bestellung bestellt haben und die Ware bzw. Waren einheitlich geliefert wird bzw. werden; �an dem Sie oder ein von Ihnen benannter Dritter, der nicht der Bef�rderer ist, die letzte Ware in Besitz genommen haben bzw. hat, wenn Sie mehrere Waren im Rahmen einer einheitlichen Bestellung bestellt haben und die Waren getrennt geliefert werden; oder �an dem Sie oder ein von Ihnen benannter Dritter, der nicht Bef�rderer ist, die letzte Teilsendung oder das letzte St�ck in Besitz genommen haben bzw. hat, wenn Sie eine Ware bestellt haben, die in mehreren Teilsendungen oder St�cken geliefert wird. Wenn mehrere der vorstehenden Alternativen vorliegen, beginnt die Widerrufsfrist erst zu laufen, wenn Sie oder ein von Ihnen benannter Dritter, der nicht Bef�rderer ist, die letzte Ware oder die letzte Teilsendung bzw. das letzte St�ck in Besitz genommen haben bzw. hat. Um Ihr Widerrufsrecht auszu�ben, m�ssen Sie uns, Vulkaneifel B�cher, Hauptstr. 4, 54587 Birgel, Rheinland Pfalz, Deutschland, Tel. 0171 7777887, mittels einer eindeutigen Erkl�rung (z.B. ein mit der Post versandter Brief, Telefax oder E-Mail) �ber Ihren Entschluss, diesen Vertrag zu widerrufen, informieren. Sie k�nnen daf�r das beigef�gte Muster-Widerrufsformular verwenden, das jedoch nicht vorgeschrieben ist. Sie k�nnen auch eine andere eindeutige Erkl�rung auf der Webseite �Meine Bestellungen� in Ihrem �Nutzerkonto� elektronisch ausf�llen und �bermitteln. Machen Sie von dieser M�glichkeit Gebrauch, so werden wir Ihnen unverz�glich (z. B. per E-Mail) eine Best�tigung �ber den Eingang eines solchen Widerrufs �bermitteln. Zur Wahrung der Widerrufsfrist reicht es aus, dass Sie die Mitteilung �ber die Aus�bung des Widerrufsrechts vor Ablauf der Widerrufsfrist absenden. Folgen des Widerrufs Wenn Sie diesen Vertrag widerrufen, haben wir Ihnen alle Zahlungen, die wir von Ihnen erhalten haben, einschlie�lich der Lieferkosten (mit Ausnahme der zus�tzlichen Kosten, die sich daraus ergeben, dass Sie eine andere Art der Lieferung als die von uns angebotene, g�nstigste Standardlieferung gew�hlt haben), unverz�glich und sp�testens binnen vierzehn Tagen ab dem Tag zur�ckzuzahlen, an dem die Mitteilung �ber Ihren Widerruf dieses Vertrags bei uns eingegangen ist. F�r diese R�ckzahlung verwenden wir dasselbe Zahlungsmittel, das Sie bei der urspr�nglichen Transaktion eingesetzt haben, es sei denn, mit Ihnen wurde ausdr�cklich etwas anderes vereinbart; in keinem Fall werden Ihnen wegen dieser R�ckzahlung Entgelte berechnet. Wir k�nnen die R�ckzahlung verweigern, bis wir die Waren wieder zur�ckerhalten haben oder bis Sie den Nachweis erbracht haben, dass Sie die Waren zur�ckgesandt haben, je nachdem, welches der fr�here Zeitpunkt ist. Sie haben die Waren unverz�glich und in jedem Fall sp�testens binnen vierzehn Tagen ab dem Tag, an dem Sie uns �ber den Widerruf dieses Vertrags unterrichten, an Vulkaneifel B�cher, Hauptstr. 4, 54587 Birgel, Rheinland Pfalz, Deutschland, Tel. 0171 7777887, zur�ckzusenden oder zu �bergeben. Die Frist ist gewahrt, wenn Sie die Waren vor Ablauf der Frist von vierzehn Tagen absenden. Sie tragen die unmittelbaren Kosten der R�cksendung der Waren. Sie m�ssen f�r einen etwaigen Wertverlust der Waren nur aufkommen, wenn dieser Wertverlust auf einen zur Pr�fung der Beschaffenheit, Eigenschaften und Funktionsweise der Waren nicht notwendigen Umgang mit ihnen zur�ckzuf�hren ist. Ausnahmen vom Widerrufsrecht Das Widerrufsrecht besteht nicht bzw. erlischt bei folgenden Vertr�gen: - Zur Lieferung von Zeitungen und Zeitschriften oder Illustrierten, mit Ausnahme von Abonnement Vertr�gen;

Visit Seller's Storefront

Seller's business information

Vulkaneifel B�cher
Germany

Sale & Shipping Terms

Terms of Sale

Allgemeine Gesch�ftsbedingungen von Vulkaneifel B�cher

Vulkaneifel B�cher, Michael Heinen, Hauptstr. 4, 54587 Birgel, Tel. 0171 7777887, Deutschland, E-Mail: vulkaneifelbuecher@heinen-reifen.de

� 1 Geltung der AGB / Identit�t und Anschrift

Der Kunde akzeptiert die nachstehenden ABG f�r alle gegenw�rtigen und zuk�nftigen Gesch�ftsbeziehungen. Es gelten ausschlie�lich die AGB des Anbieters. Abweichende, entgegenstehende oder erg�nzende Allgemeine Gesch�ftsbeziehungen werden, selbst bei Kenntnis, n...

More Information

Right of cancellation

If you are a consumer you can cancel the contract in accordance with the following. Consumer means any natural person who is acting for purposes which are outside his trade, business, craft or profession.

INFORMATION REGARDING THE RIGHT OF CANCELLATION

Statutory Right to cancel

You have the right to cancel this contract within 14 days without giving any reason.

The cancellation period will expire after 14 days from the day on which you acquire, or a third party other than the carrier and indicated by you acquires, physical possession of the the last good or the last lot or piece.

To exercise the right to cancel, you must inform us, Vulkaneifel B�cher, Hauptstr. 4, 54587, Birgel, Germany, +49 171 7777887, of your decision to cancel this contract by a clear statement (e.g. a letter sent by post, fax or e-mail). You may use the attached model cancellation form, but it is not obligatory. You can also electronically fill in and submit a clear statement on our website, under "My Purchases" in "My Account". If you use this option, we will communicate to you an acknowledgement of receipt of such a cancellation on a durable medium (e.g. by e-mail) without delay.

To meet the cancellation deadline, it is sufficient for you to send your communication concerning your exercise of the right to cancel before the cancellation period has expired.

Effects of cancellation

If you cancel this contract, we will reimburse to you all payments received from you, including the costs of delivery (except for the supplementary costs arising if you chose a type of delivery other than the least expensive type of standard delivery offered by us).

We may make a deduction from the reimbursement for loss in value of any goods supplied, if the loss is the result of unnecessary handling by you.

We will make the reimbursement without undue delay, and not later than 14 days after the day on which we are informed about your decision to cancel with contract.

We will make the reimbursement using the same means of payment as you used for the initial transaction, unless you have expressly agreed otherwise; in any event, you will not incur any fees as a result of such reimbursement.

We may withhold reimbursement until we have received the goods back or you have supplied evidence of having sent back the goods, whichever is the earliest.

You shall send back the goods or hand them over to us or Vulkaneifel B�cher, Hauptstr. 4, 54587, Birgel, Germany, +49 171 7777887, without undue delay and in any event not later than 14 days from the day on which you communicate your cancellation from this contract to us. The deadline is met if you send back the goods before the period of 14 days has expired. You will have to bear the direct cost of returning the goods. You are only liable for any diminished value of the goods resulting from the handling other than what is necessary to establish the nature, characteristics and functioning of the goods.

Exceptions to the right of cancellation

The right of cancellation does not apply to:

the delivery of newspapers, journals or magazines with the exception of subscription contracts; and
the supply of digital content which is not supplied on a tangible medium (e.g. on a CD or DVD) if you accepted when you placed your order that we could start to deliver it, and that you could not cancel it once delivery had started.

Model withdrawal form

(complete and return this form only if you wish to withdraw from the contract)

To: (Vulkaneifel B�cher, Hauptstr. 4 54587, Birgel, Germany, +49 171 7777887)

I/We (*) hereby give notice that I/We (*) withdraw from my/our (*) contract of sale of the following goods (*)/for the provision of the following goods (*)/for the provision of the following service (*),

Ordered on (*)/received on (*)

Name of consumer(s)

Address of consumer(s)

Signature of consumer(s) (only if this form is notified on paper)

Date

* Delete as appropriate.

Shipping Terms

Die Versandkosten f�r den Standardversand bis 950 Gramm beziehen sich auf den Versand als Briefsendung. F�r den Versand als Brief wird die Haftung bei Verlust ausgeschlossen.

Shipping rates from Germany to U.S.A.

Shipping rates from Germany to U.S.A.
Order quantity	30 to 40 business days	25 to 29 business days
First item	� 107.94	� 107.94

Delivery times are set by sellers and vary by carrier and location. Orders passing through Customs may face delays and buyers are responsible for any associated duties or fees. Sellers may contact you regarding additional charges to cover any increased costs to ship your items.

Detailed Seller Information