Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries
Language: English
Published by Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001
- Hardcover
- New
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AbeBooks seller since October 9, 2009
Condition: New
£ 216.88
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Seller Inventory # V9780792368335
- Title
- Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries
- Author
- . Ed(s): Tabeau, Ewa; Berg Jeths, Anneke van den; Heathcote, C.R.
- Publisher
- Kluwer Academic Publishers
- Publication year
- 2001
- Condition
- New
- Binding
- Hardcover
- Language
- English
- ISBN 10
- 0792368339
- ISBN 13
- 9780792368335
In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
"Synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
Kennys Bookstore
Olney, MD, U.S.A.
AbeBooks seller since October 9, 2009
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