Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How Can We Know?
Language: English
Published by Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ & Oxford, England, UK, 2005
- Hardcover
- Used
Seller: gearbooks, The Bronx, NY, U.S.A.gearbooks
AbeBooks seller since September 27, 2007
Condition: Used - As new
£ 85.12
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Add to basketItem description from seller
Seller Inventory # 4iAb0045
- Title
- Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How Can We Know?
- Author
- Philip E. Tetlock
- Publisher
- Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ & Oxford, England, UK
- Publication year
- 2005
- Condition
- Like New
- Dust jacket
- Like New
- Binding
- Hardcover
- Language
- English
- ISBN 10
- 0691123020
- ISBN 13
- 9780691123028
- Illustrator
- Pamela Lewis Schnitter (Jacket Design); Jim Block (Author Photo)
- Edition
- 4th Printing
- Dimensions
- 8vo or 8° (Medium Octavo): 7¾" x 9¾" tall
- Seller catalogs
- Behavioral Science, Social Science, Political Science, Political Theory & Studies, Psychology, Psychiatry, Psychotherapy
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.
Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.
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About the Author
"About the title" may belong to another edition of this title.
gearbooks
The Bronx, NY, U.S.A.
AbeBooks seller since September 27, 2007
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