How to Expect the Unexpected Format: Hardback
Yates, Kit
Sold by INDOO, Avenel, NJ, U.S.A.
AbeBooks Seller since 9 August 2004
Used - Hardcover
Condition: Used - As new
Ships within U.S.A.
Quantity: Over 20 available
Add to basketSold by INDOO, Avenel, NJ, U.S.A.
AbeBooks Seller since 9 August 2004
Condition: Used - As new
Quantity: Over 20 available
Add to basketUnread copy in mint condition.
Seller Inventory # TW9781541604933
A “vivid, wide-ranging, and delightful guide” (bestselling author Tim Harford) for understanding how and why predictions go wrong, with practical tips to give you a better chance of getting them right
How can you be 100 percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions—and how we can use it to our advantage.
From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Synthesizing results from math, biology, psychology, sociology, medicine, economic theory, and physics, Yates provides tools for readers to understand uncertainty and to recognize the cognitive biases that make accurate predictions so hard to come by.
This book will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts, and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.
Kit Yates is a senior lecturer in the department of mathematical sciences and codirector of the Centre for Mathematical Biology at the University of Bath. He is the author of The Math of Life and Death (2020), which was a Sunday Times Science Book of the Year. He lives in Oxford, England.
"About this title" may belong to another edition of this title.
We sell brand new books from the publisher.
If you are a consumer you can cancel the contract in accordance with the following. Consumer means any natural person who is acting for purposes which are outside his trade, business, craft or profession.
INFORMATION REGARDING THE RIGHT OF CANCELLATION
Statutory Right to cancel
You have the right to cancel this contract within 14 days for any reason.
The cancellation period will expire after 14 days from the day on which you acquire, or a third party other than the carrier and indicated by you acquires, physical possession of the the last good or the last lot or piece.
To exercise the right to cancel, you must inform us, INDOO, 22C Cragwood Road, 07001, Avenel, New Jersey, U.S.A., of your decision to cancel this contract by a clear statement (e.g. a letter sent by post, fax or e-mail). You may use the attached model cancellation form, but it is not obligatory. You can also electronically fill in and submit a clear statement on our website, under "My Purchases" in "My Account". If you use this option, we will communicate to you an acknowledgement of receipt of such a cancellation on a durable medium (e.g. by e-mail) without delay.
To meet the cancellation deadline, it is sufficient for you to send your communication concerning your exercise of the right to cancel before the cancellation period has expired.
Effects of cancellation
If you cancel this contract, we will reimburse to you all payments received from you, including the costs of delivery (except for the supplementary costs arising if you chose a type of delivery other than the least expensive type of standard delivery offered by us).
We may make a deduction from the reimbursement for loss in value of any goods supplied, if the loss is the result of unnecessary handling by you.
We will make the reimbursement without undue delay, and not later than 14 days after the day on which we are informed about your decision to cancel with contract.
We will make the reimbursement using the same means of payment as you used for the initial transaction, unless you have expressly agreed otherwise; in any event, you will not incur any fees as a result of such reimbursement.
We may withhold reimbursement until we have received the goods back or you have supplied evidence of having sent back the goods, whichever is the earliest.
You shall send back the goods or hand them over to us or INDOO, Avenel, New Jersey, U.S.A., without undue delay and in any event not later than 14 days from the day on which you communicate your cancellation from this contract to us. The deadline is met if you send back the goods before the period of 14 days has expired. You will have to bear the direct cost of returning the goods. You are only liable for any diminished value of the goods resulting from the handling other than what is necessary to establish the nature, characteristics and functioning of the goods.
Exceptions to the right of cancellation
The right of cancellation does not apply to:
Model withdrawal form
(complete and return this form only if you wish to withdraw from the contract)
To: (INDOO, 22C Cragwood Road, 07001, Avenel, New Jersey, U.S.A.)
I/We (*) hereby give notice that I/We (*) withdraw from my/our (*) contract of sale of the following goods (*)/for the provision of the following goods (*)/for the provision of the following service (*),
Ordered on (*)/received on (*)
Name of consumer(s)
Address of consumer(s)
Signature of consumer(s) (only if this form is notified on paper)
Date
* Delete as appropriate.
Shipping costs are based on books weighing 2.2 LB, or 1 KG. If your book order is heavy or oversized, we may contact you to let you know extra shipping is required.
| Order quantity | 5 to 14 business days | 5 to 14 business days |
|---|---|---|
| First item | £ 0.00 | £ 0.00 |
Delivery times are set by sellers and vary by carrier and location. Orders passing through Customs may face delays and buyers are responsible for any associated duties or fees. Sellers may contact you regarding additional charges to cover any increased costs to ship your items.