Duffer’s Shoal: A Strategic Dream of the Pacific Command Area of Responsibility: A Strategic Dream of the Pacific Command Area of Responsibility

This strategic assessment seeks to go beyond a traditional comparative analysis of the military, technological, political, cultural, and economic factors governing the relationships and capabilities of the Asia Pacific environment. To make sense of the intrinsic complexities unique to this region, we endeavor to broaden our view and rely on a tool often overlooked in government studies: imagination. Moreover, we aim to offer a strategic document that is readable, instructive, and provocative. Pulling from a well-referenced piece of military teaching, this assessment borrows a learning concept first employed in 1904 by Major General Sir Ernest Dunlop Swinton in "The Defence of Duffer's Drift." This fictional story describes the plight of young Lieutenant Backsight Forethought as he commands a 50-man platoon tasked to hold a tactically critical piece of land called Duffer's Drift. The story unfolds in a series of six dreams, where the blunders of the unwitting lieutenant lead to disaster. As the dreams progress, he harnesses the lessons of each of his failures, and by applying these lessons, his platoon ultimately defends Duffer's Drift.

The series of six distinct dreams explore a progression of steadily escalating planning and con-tingency scenarios--from steady state security coop-eration activities, to piracy, human security, terrorism, environmental disaster, and major combat. The narra-tives challenge the reader to consider several regional dynamics, reflect on a multitude of intended (and un-intended) consequences of U.S. action, and share in the many strategic observations our protagonist makes during his hypothetical sleep-induced journey. The sixth and final dream weaves these themes and lessons together to comprehensively highlight the unique op-portunities for "collective assurance" borne through enhanced collaboration and understanding. Most sig-nificantly, the closing dream challenges our traditional definition of strategic "success" and encourages the development of a "better way."

The specific observations demonstrated in these short stories, represented by a sequence of dreams and leadership challenges may foster strategic insights for further consideration by policy analysts, strategists, and policymakers. Greater use of collaboration, negotiation, and collective assurance including regional trust between several agencies are the authors' recommendations for future paths to handle the situations presented in the challenging dreams.The primary audience is military operations and logistics staff, political scientists and public policy decision-makers. However, the content and dream scenarios could also offer some guidance to disaster response and emergency management planners on the local/state government levels, private maritime operators including shippers and freight forwarders that may encounter piracy in the open oceans as part of delivery routes and possibly other business planners operations that may have an impact from a national disaster or national security event.

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ABOUT THE AUTHORS:

RUSSELL N. BAILEY is a 2015 U.S. Army War College graduate and Carlisle Scholar. He is a Foreign Area Officer specializing in Southeast Asia. He has served in policy and intelligence positions at the Joint Staff, U.S. Pacific Command, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the National Security Council Staff. He served as the Senior Defense Official and Defense Attache at the U.S. Embassy in Jakarta, Indonesia, from 2010 to 2014. Colonel Bailey is a graduate of California State Polytechnic Institute, Pomona, the University of Michigan, the Singapore Command and Staff College, and the U.S. Army War College.

ROBERT G. DIXON is a 2015 U.S. Army War College graduate and Carlisle Scholar. He is a Corps of Engineers officer who has commanded at the company and battalion levels. He has served as a strategist and planner at the Combined Joint Task Force; Division; and Combatant Command levels. Lieutenant Colonel Dixon is a graduate of the Florida Institute of Technology, American Public University, the School of Advanced Military Studies, and the U.S. Army War College.

LAURA MCALEER currently serves as a Visiting Scholar at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, supporting the establishment and execution of the Carlisle Scholars Program in its inaugural year. She has extensive civilian and military experience at all levels of government, including service as a military strategist, defense policy analyst, intelligence officer, and congressional staffer. She is a graduate of the University of Notre Dame and the U.S. Naval War College.

DEREK J. O'MALLEY is a 2015 U.S. Army War Col-lege graduate and Carlisle Scholar. He is an Air Force fighter pilot with more than 2,100 hours of operational flying time in the F-16C and the F-35A. Lieutenant Colonel O'Malley commanded an Operational Test and Evaluation Squadron, where he led operational test efforts for the F-16C, F-15C, F-15E, A-10C, F-22A, and F-35A. He is a graduate of Brigham Young Uni-versity, the U.S. Air Force Weapons School, the Naval Post Graduate School, and the U.S. Army War College.

CHRISTOPHER J. PARSONS is a New Zealand Army officer and 2015 Carlisle Scholar at the U.S. Army War College. His assignments have included command at unit and brigade levels. Colonel Parsons is a Member of the New Zealand Order of Merit, a recipient of the New Zealand Distinguished Service Decoration and the U.S. Defense Meritiorious Service Medal. He is a graduate of Canberra University, Massey University, the Australian Command and Staff College, and the U.S. Army War College.

ELIZABETH R. SMITH is a 2015 U.S. Army War College graduate and Carlisle Scholar. She is an Air Defense Officer, specializing in patriot missile operations. She has commanded at battery and battalion levels, served as a Joint Staff Intern working Iraq Strategic policy and the International Criminal Court, and held numerous positions on Joint and Multi-National staffs such as Chief of Operations at Joint Task Force-North and the Knowledge Manager for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Training Mission/Combined Security Transition Command in Afghanistan. She is a 1993 graduate of the U.S. Military Academy. Colonel Smith holds a certification in Knowledge Management from the KM Institute and master's degrees from the University of Phoenix, Marine Corps University, and the U.S. Army War College.