Inside the Crystal Ball : How to Make and Use Forecasts

Maury Harris

ISBN 10: 1118865073 / ISBN 13: 9781118865071

Published by Wiley Dez 2014, 2014

About this Item

Neuware - A practical guide to understanding economic forecastsIn Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book:\* Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance.\* Demonstrates 'best practices' in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions.\* Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment--a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks--in readable and illuminating detail.\* Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises.\* Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues--including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies.\* Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.

Seller Inventory # 9781118865071

Bibliographic Details

• Title: Inside the Crystal Ball : How to Make and Use Forecasts
• Publisher: Wiley Dez 2014
• Publication Date: 2014
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 1118865073
• ISBN 13: 9781118865071
• Binding: Buch
• Condition: Neu
• Dimensions: 237W x 166H x 35D millimeters 237 millimeters width by 166 millimeters height by 35 millimeters depth
• Weight: 624 grams

About this title

Synopsis

A practical guide to understanding economic forecasts

In Inside the Crystal Ball: How to Make and Use Forecasts, UBS Chief U.S. Economist Maury Harris helps readers improve their own forecasting abilities by examining the elements and processes that characterize successful and failed forecasts. The book:

• Provides insights from Maury Harris, named among Bloomberg's 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance.
• Demonstrates "best practices" in the assembly and evaluation of forecasts. Harris walks readers through the real-life steps he and other successful forecasters take in preparing their projections. These valuable procedures can help forecast users evaluate forecasts and forecasters as inputs for making their own specific business and investment decisions.
• Emphasizes the critical role of judgment in improving projections derived from purely statistical methodologies. Harris explores the prerequisites for sound forecasting judgment―a good sense of history and an understanding of contemporary theoretical frameworks―in readable and illuminating detail.
• Addresses everyday forecasting issues, including the credibility of government statistics and analyses, fickle consumers, and volatile business spirits. Harris also offers procedural guidelines for special circumstances, such as natural disasters, terrorist threats, gyrating oil and stock prices, and international economic crises.
• Evaluates major contemporary forecasting issues―including the now commonplace hypothesis of sustained economic sluggishness, possible inflation outcomes in an environment of falling unemployment, and projecting interest rates when central banks implement unprecedented low interest rate and quantitative easing (QE) policies.
• Brings to life Harris's own experiences and those of other leading economists in his almost four-decade career as a professional economist and forecaster. Dr. Harris presents his personal recipes for long-term credibility and commercial success to anyone offering advice about the future.

About the Author

MAURY HARRIS is a Man-aging Director and Chief Economist for the Americas for the UBS investment bank. Dr. Harris has led forecasting teams ranked as the most accurate in the country in four separate years over the past decade. In addition, he has been named numerous times to the Institutional Investor (II) All-America Research Team over the past two decades. Dr. Harris is a past President of the Forecaster's Club of New York. Prior to the UBS AG acquisition of PaineWebber Incorporated, he was the Chief Economist for PaineWebber. Before that, Dr. Harris worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and The Bank for International Settlements. Dr. Harris holds a PhD in eco-nomics from Columbia University, an MA in economics from Columbia University, and a BA in economics from the University of Texas, where he graduated Phi Beta Kappa. He is married with two children.