CHAPTER 1
Conflict in History Study of the Mexican (- American) War 1846-1848
By Dennis Glenn Collins
7108 Grand Blvd.
Hobart, IN 46342-6628
Jan. 10, 2020
This study of the Mexican (-American) War 1846-1848 is based on the author's 1971 paper "Conflict in History," whereby events supposedly favorable to one side (in this case the United States) are charted above the horizontal axis and events apparently favorable to the other side (Mexico) are graphed below the horizontal or time axis, which in this case is divided into years. Please see Figure 1.
The dates of deaths of U.S. Presidents and past presidents are taken to calibrate the study, namely at the plus and minus two periods, the death of Andrew Jackson June 8, 1845 and James Polk June 15, 1849, both from Tennessee and symbolic of American expansion Westward. Additionally at points favorable to Mexico are the deaths of Pres. Zachary Taylor July 9, 1850 and John Quincy Adams Feb. 23, 1848. This pattern continued in U.S. dealings with Latin America with the 1901 assassination of McKinley after the Spanish-American War of 1898 and John Kennedy in 1963 after the 1962 Bay of Pigs invasion. Teddy Roosevelt died after an expedition into the Amazon.
The decision point therefore comes out about June 11, 1847, favorable to the U.S. The successful campaign of Gen. Winfield Scott into Mexico from March 9, 1 847 (Veracruz) to Sept. 14, 1847 (Mexico City) three months before and after June 11, 1847 more or less bracket this decision point, following up a victory in at Buena Vista Feb. 22-23, 1847 by Zachary Taylor in northern Mexico. Also near the decision point July 1847 the Mormons settled around Salt Lake City, Utah. Thus the decision point can be taken as the success of the "Manifest Destiny" of the U.S. to win the West.
The supposed one-year advance of Mexican interests took place from December 1845 to December 1846. This year saw Mexico with a certain moral advantage since it was understood the entrance of Texas into the Union, as happened Dec. 29, 1845, would mean war with the U.S. The actual war was declared by Congress May 13, 1846 after the so-called Thornton affair saw 16 Americans die after a clash April 25, 1846. In spite of Mexican defeats at the hand of Zachary Taylor at Palo Alto May 8 and Resaca de la Palma May 9, 1846, Mexico under Santa Anna seems to have recovered sufficiently to outnumber Zachary Taylor's troops 4 to 1 at the above-mentioned battle of Buena Vista, Feb. 22-23, 1847. There was also opposition in the U.S. Congress to the Mexican War, which was seen as a scheme to increase slave-holding territory.
Along these lines, Abraham Lincoln's Dec. 22, 1847 "Spot" Resolutions against Pres. Polk were supposedly at a period favorable to Mexico. However these were dropped and the period Dec. 1847 to Dec. 1848 saw a one-year advance of U.S. "Manifest Destiny" interests, ending with the election of Zachary Taylor as President in
© 2010 Dennis Glenn Collins
Nov. 1848, even though he hadn't bothered to vote. The one-year advance saw the discovery of gold in California, Jan. 24, 1848 (leading to the Gold Rush), and the addition of the territory, including Texas and California, sought by Pres. Polk at the Treaty of Gaudalupe-Hidalgo Feb. 2, 1848 under the questionable direction of Nicholas Trist. Actually this treaty could be considered as under the period favorable to Mexico, since some Americans wanted to annex all of Mexico, an interesting possibility considering present difficulties. Also as part of the one-year advance the Oregon dispute with Britain was mostly settled.
At a point favorable to the U.S., Nov. 1844, James Polk was elected Pres. of the United States. Further topics for study include supposedly favorable events Dec. 1849 and events at the so-called "future" points, approximately Feb. 1846 and Oct. 1847.
Remark: Also the supposed "high points" of the Mexican side could be studied more. These Mexican high points are somewhat limited because at the 25-years cycle, the U.S. was at a high (1848) in between the lows of the Alamo (1836) and the Civil War (1861). Consequently the Mexican high points are significantly attenuated.
Mayaguez, Puerto Rico Jan 10, 2010.
Dennis G. Collins
CHAPTER 2
Bin Laden Study
By Dennis G. Collins
1519 S. State Rd 119 Apt. 2
Winamac, IN 46996-8550
Sept. 24, 2011
According to the author's 1971 theory "Conflict in History," the chart plots events involving the death of Al Qaeda leader Bin Laden on May 1, 2011, with events favorable to the U.S. plotted above the time-coordinate axis and events favorable to Al Qaeda plotted below the t-axis in 27-day periods. The decision point around June 24, 2011 favorable to Al Qaeda appears to be the U.S. move to draw down troops in Afghanistan, announced by Obama at a "future point" July 4, 2011. The U.S. high points at the +/-2 period points are the deaths of Bin Laden May 1and supposed #2 man al-Rahman Aug. 22. A U.S. low point was the shooting down of a Navy Seal team Aug. 5, 2011 at the +1.5 period point.
CHAPTER 3
Conflict in History Study of World War I
By Dennis G. Collins, 7108 Grand Blvd., Hobart, IN 46342-6628 Urb. Mayaguez Terrace, 6009 Calle R. Martinez Torres, Mayaguez, PR 00682-6630
This analysis of World War I (Please see Figure 1.) is based on the author's 1971 paper "Conflict in History," which graphs "warp" above the time axis as favorable to one side, and "warp" below the axis as favorable to the other sides in a conflict, according to the formula: f(x)= exp(-(.75*t)^2/2)*(cos(2*Pi*t)*(4*(.75*t)^2-2)). Here events favorable to the Allies (Britain, France, Russia, later the United States (April 6, 1917), Italy and others) supposedly come above the time axis and events favorable to the Central Powers (Germany, Austro-Hungary, later the Ottoman Empire — Turkey — and others) supposedly come below the time axis. More generally, the war can be considered as a conflict between democracy (top) and empire (bottom). With his "war to end wars," Woodrow Wilson played the role of theoretician, entering stage left as U.S. President in Nov. 1912 and more or less exiting stage right with a stroke about Oct. 2, 1919. In this role he corresponds to Winston Churchill entering May 1940 in World War II.
Amazingly, both World War I and World War II (previously studied, Please see Figure 2.) follow the same pattern, with World War II events following World War I events by approximately 27 years and 8 months, i.e. about one generation. Although the graph patterns are exactly the same, the actual events are mostly "variations on a theme," as evidenced by the fact that no historians have noticed this fact so far as known to the author. The correspondence may be set up by the similar role of Winston Churchill in the failed Gallipoli campaign of World War I starting April 25, 1915 and his apparent role in the failed Dieppe raid along the French coast of August 19, 1942, which both came during the "one-year advance" of the opposition.
The decision point of the war is taken as April 1916, with the Battle of Verdun starting Feb. 21, 1916 halting the German advance with Petain's cry "They shall not pass," and going until June 1916, and the naval Battle of Jutland, May 31-June1, 1916, which, apart from submarine warfare, gave Britain control of seapower. Verdun, east of Paris and close to the triple French/Belgian/German border, played the role of hinge of a door swinging up and down along the English Channel coast. As long as the French controlled this hinge Verdun, it was unlikely the Germans could push it open sufficiently to take Paris. Along the "door" to the coast were the trench lines that moved back and forth slightly with hundreds of thousands of casualties as each side pushed on the door.
Here April (4 months) 1916 plus 27 years and 8 months= 12 months and 1943= Dec 1943, the decisive month of World War II according to the previous study.
The word "one-year advance" is not entirely accurate since the best way to "advance" was frequently to maintain a defensive posture and mow down the enemy with machine gun fire as it tried to take more territory. When the war started shortly after the assassination of Archduke Francis Ferdinand June 28, 1914, the Germans swept through Belgium and threatened to push open the door sufficiently to take Paris. The Allies stopped them in the 1st Battle of the Marne, Sept. 6-9, 1914 in a high point for the Allies. However there followed a one-year "advance" of the Central Powers as they kept control of industrialized northern France and most of Belgium, while employing submarine
© 2009 Dennis G. Collins
warfare, including the sinking of the U.S. oceanliner Lusitania, May 7, 1915 and poison gas for the first time April 22, 1915. Also Germany expanded eastward ("Drang Nach Osten") after crushing the Second Russian Army at Tannenburg, Aug. 26-31, 1914. The Central Powers' one-year advance included decimating the above-mentioned Gallipoli campaign April 25, 1915 to about December 1915, forcing Winston Churchill to resign from the Admiralty.
The "future points" approximately 4-5 months before and after the decision point April 1916 saw the development of general relativity in Germany by Einstein and Hilbert in Berlin, Germany in Dec. 1915 and the first use of tanks by the British Sept. 15, 1916. These events foreshadow to some extent what the author calls the "Neo-Gorgon" religion, including the ability of mass to deflect light.
The supposed one-year advance of the Allies from Oct. 1916 to Oct. 1917 began with the death of aged Austrian Emperor Franz Joseph Nov. 21, 1916, since he was not readily replaced. The German push to the east was compatible with the victory of democracy over empire since the Russian system was more despotic than the German. Thus the one-year advance of democracy ended with the abdication of the czar and the short-lived Kerensky democracy (being a high-point for democracy), and a return to despotic power Nov. 7, 1917 with the Bolshevik Revolution.
In the west, German declaration of unrestricted submarine warfare Feb. 1, 1917caused the United States to enter the war on the Allies' side April 6, 1917. However the Allies attempt to push the trench warfare door to the north in the 3rd Battle of Ypres July 31-Nov.10, 1917 was stopped by the Germans at the end of the period of one-year advance (Oct.17, 1917), and the pendulum swung back to the German side. In a high point for the Central Powers (about April, 1918), the Germans were able to switch resources from the recently-victorious eastern front and mount 4 offensives trying to push the door back south. As usual none of these offensives (March 21, 1918 — 2nd Battle of Somme, April 9, Ypres, May 27, Aisne code-named Blucher, July 15 on — 2nd Battle of Marne) were successful, and German forces were depleted.
Meanwhile the entry of America into the war gradually swung the pendulum (or door) back to the Allies' side (north), and American forces, for example at Chateau-Thierry, July 21, 1918, were able to spearhead the final Allied offensive, leading to the high-point Oct. 1918 collapse of German forces. Shortly thereafter the empires of the Central Powers were gone with Armistices (Sept. 29, 1918 Bulgaria, Oct. 30, Ottoman Empire, Nov. 3 Austria, and 11 a.m. Nov. 11, 1918 Germany).
A Woodrow Wilson attempt at a lenient peace based on his 14 points of Jan. 1918 failed and the harsh Treaty of Versailles after July 1919 was another high point for the Allies versus the Central Powers.
Among events that seem not to fit the theory are the surrender of the British at Al-Kut (Kut-al-Amara) to the Turks on April 29, 1916, although the eventual British occupation of Jerusalem Dec. 9, 1917 does occur at a supposed high point for the Allies. Wounding of 304th Tank Brigade commander Lt. Col. George S. Patton late Sept. 1918 in the Allied Meuse-Argonne offensive is somewhat out of phase with his death Dec. 21, 1945 in World War II. Also the commissioning of the 5 "Kaiser" class German battleships 1912 (Aug 1, Aug 1, Oct 15) and 1913 (May 14, July 31) are more in phase with the German sweep through Belgium than the 6 months earlier that the theory might predict.
CHAPTER 4
The War of 1812
By Dennis Glenn Collins
1519 S. State Rd. 119, Apt.2
Winamac, IN 46996-8550
October 8, 2011
This paper studies the War of 1812 according to the author's 1971 theory "Conflict in History. The time periods favorable to the United States are plotted above the horizontal or time axis t and the periods most favorable to the British are plotted below the horizontal axis, measured in years. Consistent with the alternative name of the war, "Mr. Madison's War," U.S. President James Madison enters stage left in Jan 1809 after being elected in Nov. 1808 and taking office in March 1809; he leaves stage right in Jan. 1817, leaving office in March 1817. Please see Figure 1.
Since the War of 1812 was in many respects a backwater of the war against Napoleon by the British, the decision point is taken as Jan. 1813 after Napoleon's disastrous invasion of Russia in the autumn of 1812, with the last French troops leaving Russia Dec. 14, 1812. Other British "high" points (at the bottom of the chart) were the abdication of Napoleon April 6, 1814 and his exile to Alba, and next year his defeat at the Battle of Waterloo, June 18, 1815.
The war in America was mainly a defensive struggle, with major offensives leading to reversals. In football terms one could say scoring drives ended in interceptions or fumbles. The roots of the war came from British or Jewish interference in U.S. affairs, including impressment of U.S. sailors to help the war against Napoleon, and foreign influence in the First Bank of the United States, whose charter expired in 1811. However U.S. difficulties funding the war led to a 2nd Bank of the United States being created and signed into law in April 1816, with subscriptions starting at a British "high" point July 1816. As with the Treaty of Ghent Dec. 24, 1814, which supposedly returned things to the status quo, the 2nd U.S. bank opening Jan. 7, 1817 in many ways returned financial control to rich/Jewish or European elites until the 1830's, apparently after the substantial Jewish takeover of British finance after Warterloo due to better communications.
The supposed one-year advance of the U.S. interests from July 1811 to July 1812 saw failure of diplomacy to resolve issues with Britain, leading to declaration of war against Britain by the U.S. Congress June 18, 1812 at the instigation of "War Hawks." A British attempt to avert war by cancelling some orders of Council allowing impressment came too late to reach U.S. shores, which communication problems seemed to happen repeatedly in the war. Supporting the War Hawks, the U.S. defensive victory under William Henry Harrison at the Battle of Tippecanoe Nov. 7, 1811 in Indiana is called for practical purposes the opening battle of the War of 1812. The one-year advance saw a three-prong attack against British Canada, with each prong failing as time went beyond the one-year advance. The result was British capture of American armies and victories at Queenston Heights Oct. 11, 1812 and Frenchtown, Jan 19, 1813. With diminished threat from Napoleon after April 6, 1814, the British launched their own three-prong attack (Champlain, Chesapeake, and New Orleans), again each prong of which failed, after going beyond the one-year period of advance. The Battle of Lake Champlain/Plattsburg Sept. 11, 1814 turned back the Champlain prong; the Battle of Bladensburg and burning
©2011 Dennis Glenn Collins
of Washington, D.C. buildings August 24, 1814 (U.S. forces had burned some of York/Toronto April 1813) followed by the death of the British leader Ross Sept 12, 1814 and stalling of the British offensive in Baltimore Sept. 13-14, with the composition of the Stars and Stripes national anthem by Francis Scott Key, turned back the Chesapeake prong; and the Battle of New Orleans U.S. victory Jan. 8. 1815 under Andrew Jackson and with the death of the British commander Pakenham, ended the New Orleans prong.
