Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Language: English
Published by Simon & Schuster, 2002
- Softcover
- Used
Condition: Used - Near fine
£ 4.07
Quantity: 1 available
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Ancien livre de bibliothèque avec équipements. Edition 2002. Ammareal reverse jusqu'à 15% du prix net de cet article à des organisations caritatives. ENGLISH DESCRIPTION Book Condition: Used, Good. Former library book. Edition 2002. Ammareal gives back up to 15% of this item's net price to charity organizations.
Seller Inventory # H-742-590
- Title
- Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
- Author
- Gerd Gigerenzer
- Publisher
- Simon & Schuster
- Publication year
- 2002
- Condition
- Bon
- Binding
- Softcover
- Language
- English
- ISBN 10
- 0743254236
- ISBN 13
- 9780743254236
Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics.
Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors.
Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.
To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap.
This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
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English below. Ammareal est une librairie professionnelle spécialisée dans le livre d’occasion. Nous expédions partout dans le monde. Nous avons plus de 250 000 ouvrages en stock dont un grand nombre de livres techniques et académiques. Nous reversons jusqu’à 15% du prix de vente de chaque livre à des organisations caritatives, des bibliothèques et des associations luttant contre l’illettrisme. Ce que nous ne vendons pas nous le donnons, ce que nous ne donnons pas nous le recyclons. Ammareal is a professional bookseller speciliazed in used books. We ship worldwide. We have more than 250 000 books in stock, including a large number of technical and university-level books. We give back up to 15% of the price of each book to charities, libraries and organizations fighting in favor of literacy. What we do not sell, we give, what we do not give we recycle.…
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Ammareal is a professional bookseller speciliazed in used books. We ship worldwide. We have more than 250 000 books in stock, including a large number of technical and university-level books. We give back up to 15% of the price of each book to charities, libraries and organizations fighting in favor of literacy. What we do not sell, we give, what we do not give we recycle.
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