Calculated Risks : How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Language: English
Published by Simon & Schuster, 2003
- Softcover
- Used
Seller: Better World Books: West, Reno, NV, U.S.A.Better World Books: West
AbeBooks seller since March 14, 2016
Condition: Used - Good
£ 5.11
Quantity: 1 available
Add to basketItem description from seller
Pages intact with minimal writing/highlighting. The binding may be loose and creased. Dust jackets/supplements are not included. Stock photo provided. Product includes identifying sticker. Better World Books: Buy Books. Do Good.
Seller Inventory # 5374699-75
- Title
- Calculated Risks : How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
- Author
- Gigerenzer, Gerd
- Publisher
- Simon & Schuster
- Publication year
- 2003
- Condition
- Good
- Binding
- Soft cover
- Language
- English
- ISBN 10
- 0743254236
- ISBN 13
- 9780743254236
- Item weight
- 0.866 pounds
- Dimensions
- N/A
Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics.
Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors.
Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity.
To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap.
This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
"Synopsis" may belong to another edition of this title.
About the Author
"About the title" may belong to another edition of this title.
Better World Books: West
Reno, NV, U.S.A.
AbeBooks seller since March 14, 2016
Shipping rates within U.S.A.
| Item | 4 to 8 business days | 3 to 5 business days |
|---|---|---|
| First item | £ 0.00 | £ 9.59 |
Payment methods
Store description
Better World Books is a for-profit, socially conscious business and a global online bookseller that collects and sells new and used books online, matching each purchase with a book donation. Each sale generates funds for literacy and education initiatives in the U.S., the UK, and around the world. Since its launch in 2003, Better World Books has raised over $35 million for libraries and literacy, donated over 38 million books, and reused or recycled more than 475 million books.
Seller's business information
Better World Books Marketplace, Inc.
55742 Currant Road
Mishawaka, IN U.S.A. 46545
Terms of sale
Better World Books (BWB) values your satisfaction and offers you returns within thirty (30) days after the estimated delivery date on most items. All returned items must be in the original condition; used items should include the SKU sticker located on the spine or back of the product.
If you have an incomplete, incorrect, or damaged shipment, please contact our Customer Care team via Abebooks contact seller options before proceeding with the return.Please keep in mind that because we deal mostly in used books, any extra components, such as CDs, DVDs, figurines, or access codes are not included.
Right of withdrawal
If you are a consumer you can withdraw from the contract in accordance with the following. Consumer means any natural person who is acting for purposes which are outside his trade, business, craft or profession.
Information regarding the right of withdrawal
Statutory right to withdraw
You have the right to withdraw from this contract within 14 days without giving any reason.
The withdrawal period will expire after 14 days from the day on which you acquire, or a third party other than the carrier and indicated by you acquires, physical possession of the last good or the last lot or piece.
To exercise the right of withdrawal, electronically fill in and submit a clear statement on our website, under "My Purchases" in "My Account". We will communicate to you an acknowledgement of receipt of such a withdrawal on a durable medium (e.g. by e-mail) without delay.
To meet the withdrawal deadline, it is sufficient for you to send your communication concerning your exercise of the right of withdrawal before the withdrawal period has expired.
Effects of withdrawal
If you withdraw from this contract, we will reimburse to you all payments received from you, including the costs of delivery (except for the supplementary costs arising if you chose a type of delivery other than the least expensive type of standard delivery offered by us).
We may make a deduction from the reimbursement for loss in value of any goods supplied, if the loss is the result of unnecessary handling by you.
We will make the reimbursement without undue delay, and not later than 14 days after the day on which we are informed about your decision to withdraw from this contract.
We will make the reimbursement using the same means of payment as you used for the initial transaction, unless you have expressly agreed otherwise; in any event, you will not incur any fees as a result of such reimbursement.
We may withhold reimbursement until we have received the goods back, or you have supplied evidence of having sent back the goods, whichever is the earliest.
You shall send back the goods or hand them over to Better World Books: West, Mishawaka, Indiana, U.S.A., without undue delay and in any event not later than 14 days from the day on which you communicate your withdrawal from this contract to us. The deadline is met if you send back the goods before the period of 14 days has expired. You will have to bear the direct cost of returning the goods. You are only liable for any diminished value of the goods resulting from the handling other than what is necessary to establish the nature, characteristics and functioning of the goods.
Exceptions to the right of withdrawal
The right of withdrawal does not apply to:
- The delivery of newspapers, journals or magazines with the exception of subscription contracts; and
- The supply of digital content which is not supplied on a tangible medium (e.g. on a CD or DVD) if you accepted when you placed your order that we could start to deliver it, and that you could not withdraw once delivery had started.
Shipping terms
Please allow 1-2 business days for order fulfillment.