Title: Analysis and Forecasting of Army Operating and Support Cost for Rotary Aircraft
Publisher: Biblioscholar
Publication Date: 2012
Language: English
ISBN 10: 1288256000
ISBN 13: 9781288256006
Binding: Soft cover
Condition: New

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Synopsis

This research explores forecasting techniques to estimate the Cost per Flying Hour for Army Helicopters. Specifically, three separate forecasting techniques are evaluated to better predict the CPFH for better estimating and budgeting by the US Army. To begin, the three cost categories are empirically analyzed for each helicopter. For forecasting purposes, actual CPFH figures were compiled from 1995 to 2003 for all MACOMs flying the AH-64A, the CH-47D, and the UH-60A helicopters. The number of MACOMs is then reduced to the top three in regards to total CPFH expenditure. The use of a 3-year moving average, the single exponential smoothing method and the Holt's linear method are explored for each helicopter's data. These forecasting techniques are used to forecast for FY03 in evaluating the best methodology to forecast the CPFH for FY04. By comparing both the budgeted and forecasted figures for FY00 - FY02 to the actual CPFH figures in the same years, an accurate CPFH forecast for all of the MACOMs was possible. When data became available, a comparison of the actual, budgeted, and forecasted CPFH for FY03 was performed. The Holt's linear method was discovered to be the best forecasting method for 78 percent of the time series analyzed since they contained positive trends. Finally, the best forecast to be provided for FY04 is calculated with the chosen forecasting method.

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