Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles

Joseph H. Ellis

ISBN 10: 1591396913 / ISBN 13: 9781591396918

Published by Harvard Business Review Press, 2005

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Bibliographic Details

Title: Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to ...

Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press

Publication Date: 2005

Binding: hardcover

Condition: Very Good

About this title

Synopsis:

Economic and stock market cycles affect companies in every industry. Unfortunately, a confusing array of anecdotal and conflicting indicators often renders it impossible for managers and investors to see where the economy is heading in time to take corrective action. Now, a 35-year Wall Street veteran unveils a new forecasting method to help managers and investors understand and predict the economic cycles that control their businesses and financial fates. In Ahead of the Curve, Joseph H. Ellis argues that the problem with current forecasting models lies not in the data, but rather in the lack of a clear framework for putting the data in context and reading it correctly. The book explains critical economic indicators in nontechnical language, identifies and documents the recurring cause-and-effect relationships that consistently predict turning points in the economy, and provides the tools managers and investors need to position themselves ahead of cyclical upturns and downturns. Economic events are not as random and unpredictable as they seem. This book helps readers recognize and react to signs of change that their rivals don't see—and win a sizeable competitive advantage. Joseph H. Ellis was a partner at Goldman Sachs and was ranked for 18 consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street's No.1 retail industry analyst.

From the Back Cover:

A practical new forecasting model that helps managers and investors to
predict ups and downs in market cycles before they impact their companies
and investments.
Today's managers and investors are bombarded with so many conflicting
economic reports and data that it seems impossible to know which way the
market will turn until it's too late.

Now, a thirty-five year Wall Street veteran enables managers and investors
to stop relying on conventional economic forecasts (which are usually
wrong) and confidently analyse how the market will impact their industry,
business, or stocks.

Ahead of the Curve unveils his proven forecasting model--based on just a
few key economic indicators--for identifying major directional changes in
the economy and adjusting business and investing strategies accordingly.