1. Introduction.- 1.1. Behavioral Decision Theory.- 1.2. Introduction to Detection of Change.- 1.3. Plan of the Book.- 2. The Optimal Policy.- 2.1. Problems TDC and DC.- 2.2. Sufficient Statistics.- 2.3. The Probability of Change.- 2.4. The Optimal Policy.- 2.5. The Nature of the Optimal Policy.- 2.6. Examples.- 3. A Response Model with a Fixed Probability Boundary.- 3.1. Introduction.- 3.2. Problem TDC.- 3.3. Problem DC.- 3.4. Relationships between Problems DC and TDC.- 3.5. Recursive Equations for Mean Values.- 3.6. Relation of Model FPB to the Optimal Policy.- 4. A Response Model with a Fixed Number of Observations.- 4.1. Model FNOB.- 4.2. The Case of No Information.- 4.3. Problem TDC.- 4.4. Problem DC.- 4.5. Parameter Estimation.- 5. A Response Model with a Fixed Number of Successive Observations.- 5.1. Model FNSOB.- 5.2. Problem TDC.- 5.3. Problem DC.- 6. Sensitivity Analysis.- 6.1. Validation by Cupidity.- 6.2. The Curse of Insensitivity.- 6.3. Within Model Insensitivity.- 6.4. Between Model Insensitivity.- 6.5. The System Operating Characteristic (SOC).- 6.6. Conclusions.- 7. Multi-State Detection of Change.- 7.1. Introduction.- 7.2. Problem Formulation.- 7.3. The Optimal Policies.- 7.4. Discussion.- 8. Experimental Research.- 8.1. An Experimental Comparison of the Models.- 8.2. A Psychophysical Experiment.- 8.3. Applications to Performance Evaluation.- 9. Extensions.- 9.1. Arbitrary Distribution of Trial of Change.- 9.2. Further Research.- Appendix. Solution Program for Optimal Policy.- Glossary of Symbols.- Index of Names.- Index of Subjects.
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