How can the process of professionalization of intelligence be supported? This study is aimed at contributing to the process of moving towards a qualitative framework for analysis. This need concerns two issues.
First, there is a need to develop an instrument for an ex ante quality assessment of intelligence and security agency reports. Until now, the issue of the accuracy of reports has been mainly limited to incidents, such as disasters like Pearl Harbor and 9/11. If you look at evaluations of such disasters, the focus of attention is on post mortem analyses. In post mortem analyses, you look back, knowing the outcome of the danger evaluated. The question, what is good intelligence, is not answered. In this study, an ex ante instrument is construed in such a way that the quality of reports can be evaluated, even when crucial intelligence is absent, or if the outcome of a danger is not known.
Second, there is a need to identify which factors contribute to a high or a low quality of a report. Factors of influence on the quality of reports are discussed and recommendations are presented.
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This book analyses the process of intelligence gathering in the particular context of the Netherlands, providing a qualitative framework of analysis as a contribution to the professionalisation and improvement of the process of using and gathering intelligence. At a time of increased concern about the use of effective intelligence worldwide this book will have many important lessons for the wider international policing and intelligence community. The book seeks to move away from an emphasis on evaluations of intelligence on the basis of particular incidents or events (such as 9/11) where the outcome of the danger is known, looking instead at the question of 'what is good intelligence?' without this being clouded by hindsight. The objective of the book rather is to construct a framework of analysis to enable the quality of reports to be evaluated in situations where crucial intelligence is absent, and where the outcome of a threat or danger is not known. The book also identifies which factors contribute to the quality of reports, and a number of recommendations for improvement are put forward.
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