The Place of Probability in Science: In Honor of Ellery Eells (1953-2006) - Softcover
Book 25 of 214: Boston Studies in the Philosophy and History of Science
Synopsis
ELLERY EELLS / Objective Probability Theory Theory PART I: ALTERNATIVE CONCEPTIONS OF PROBABILITY 2. DANIEL M. HAUSMAN / Probabilistic Causality and Causal Generalizations 3. MARTIN BARRETT / On the Possibility of Chance Zero 4. JAMES H. FETZER / Probabilistic Metaphysics PART II: THE OBJECTIVITY OF MACRO-PROBABILITIES 5. WOLFGANG SPOHN / Chance and Necessity: From Humean Supervenience to Humean Projection 6. ELLIOTT SOBER / Evolutionary Theory and the Reality of Macro Probabilities 7. JAMES H. FETZER / Is Evolution an Optimizing Process? PART III: PROBABILITIES AS EXPLANATORY PROPERTIES 8. ELLERY EELLS / Propensity Trajectories, Preemption, and the Identity of Events 9. MALCOLM FORSTER / The Miraculous Consilience of Quantum Mechanics 10. JAMES H. FETZER / Probability and Objectivity in Deterministic and deterministic Situations PART IV: PROBABILITIES IN INFERENCE AND DECISION 11...BRANDEN FITELSON and JAMES HAWTHORNE / How Bayesian Confirmation Theory Handles the Paradox of the Ravens 12. BRIAN SKYRMS and ROBIN PEMANTLE / Learning to Network: Game Theory and Reinforcement Learning 13. PAUL WEIRICH / Probabilities in Decision Rules EPILOGUE 14. JAMES H. FETZER / Propensities and Frequencies: Inference to the Best Explanation
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Product Description
Science aims at the discovery of general principles of special kinds that are applicable for the explanation and prediction of the phenomena of the world in the form of theories and laws. When the phenomena themselves happen to be general, the principlesinvolved assume the form of theories; and when they are p- ticular, they assume the form of general laws. Theories themselves are sets of laws and de nitions that apply to a common domain, which makes laws indispensable to science. Understanding science thus depends upon understanding the nature of theories and laws, the logical structure of explanations and predictions based upon them, and the principles of inference and decision that apply to theories and laws. Laws and theories can differ in their form as well as in their content. The laws of quantum mechanics are indeterministic (or probabilistic), for example, while those of classical mechanics are deterministic (or universal) instead. The history of science re ects an increasing role for probabilities as properties of the world but also as measures of evidential support and as degrees of subjective belief. Our purpose is to clarify and illuminate the place of probability in science.
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