Political Psychology frontier Renditions : The Fox and the Hedgehog Expert Political Judgment(Chinese Edition) - Softcover

Softcover

ISBN 10: 730016739X ISBN 13: 9787300167398

Synopsis

Paperback. Pub Date :2013-03-01 Language: Chinese Publisher: China Renmin University Press . Political Psychology frontier Renditions : foxes and hedgehogs Expert Political Judgment author explains in predicting future events . good judgment by the what constitutes why experts predict that often make mistakes . and a detailed analysis of the fox and hedgehog style style expert judgment in doing the differences and pros and cons. Through his analysis of large data show that: the political decision making estimates and projections . the best experts also keep a simple mathematical formula evaluated . Contents: Acknowledgements Preface Chapter on non-quantifiable quantitative Chapter radical skepticism from the loss -style challenge CHAPTER know a person of knowledge limits: fox than hedgehog has a higher score Chapter calibration and respected reputation distinguish bet : fox ...

Edition details

• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 730016739X
• ISBN 13: 9787300167398
• Binding: Paperback