Coping with Uncertainty: Modeling and Policy Issues: 581 (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, 581) - Softcover

Softcover

ISBN 10: 3540352589 ISBN 13: 9783540352587

Publisher: Springer, 2006

Synopsis

Ongoing global changes pose fundamentally new scientific problems requiring new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of practically irreducible uncertainties, which challenge traditional models and require new concepts and analytical tools. Uncertainty can dominate, as in the climate change debates. Increasing the resolution of models does not always yield sufficient certainty. This book presents much-needed new tools for modeling and management of uncertainty.

About this title

Synopsis

Ongoing global changes bring fundamentally new scientific problems requiring new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of practically irreducible uncertainties, which challenge our traditional models and require new concepts and analytical tools. The uncertainty critically dominantes, e.g., the climate change debates. In short, the dilemma is concerned with enormous costs vs. massive uncertainties of potential extreme impacts. Traditional scientific approaches usually rely on real observations and experiments. Yet, no sufficient observations exist for new problems, and "pure" experiments and learning by doing may be very expensive, dangerous, or simply impossible. In addition, available historical observations are contaminated by actions, policies. The complexity of new problems does not allow to achieve enough certainty by increasing the resolution of models or by bringing in more links. Hence, new tools for modeling and management of uncertainty are needed, as given in this book.

Edition details

• Publisher: Springer
• Publication date: 2006
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 3540352589
• ISBN 13: 9783540352587
• Binding: Paperback
• Number of pages: 330
• Editor: Marti Kurt, Ermoliev Yuri, Makowski Marek, Pflug Georg