The Little (illustrated) Book of Operational Forecasting: A short introduction to the practice and pitfalls of short term forecasting - and how to increase its value to the business - Softcover

Dr Steve Morlidge

Softcover

ISBN 10: 1789013429 ISBN 13: 9781789013429

Publisher: Troubador Publishing, 2018

Synopsis

This is a guidebook about short term Operational Forecasting - the sort that is done to determine how much product you need to source or how many people you need to draft in to meet customer demand.

It is organized under 5 headings: 1. The purpose of operational forecasting 2. Understanding demand 3. Forecasting methods 4. Understanding forecast performance 5. Managing forecast performance.

The first two sections and part of section three are essential reading for anyone involved in or responsible for operational forecasting. The rest of the book is most helpful for practitioners.

The aim is to produce something that provides a useful introduction to operational forecasting for both practitioners and their bosses by filling in the gap that lies between a naive common sense understanding of short term forecasting and the complex technicalities of mathematical forecasting techniques.

The authors background as a self-taught business orientated forecasting nerd with limited mathematical expertise qualifies who tell it the way it is makes him well qualified to fill this gap.

The book has been designed to be simple but not simplistic, using short and to the point learning points supported by clear graphics. It is technically sound but also highly practical.

The hope is that it will help create a common language to help people talk intelligently about forecasting and help stop people doing dumb stuff - which is where most of the potential for improvement lies. It will also help people design good forecast processes and informed software purchasing decisions. In doing so it will help people realize that forecasting is important and that investing in people as well as software will generate enormous benefits for many businesses.
This little book about forecasting comes with a big message for forecasters and their audience.

Most books in forecasting bury the important perspectives in methodological detail. This one stands above the forest: it offers so many memorable takeaways that you d almost like to commit the text to memory. And Steve does all this with simplicity, style, and humor. It s quite an accomplishment.

Len Tashman, Editor of Foresight, the premier publication for business forecasters.

The essential forecasting primer for the first-time forecaster or practitioner wanting to know more. Excellence in forecasting stems from understanding more than algebra and the mechanical application of predictive analytics. An appreciation of the potential perils and pitfalls, low-yield activities and must-do s is crucial. I thoroughly recommend this book as a great introduction into themes that will elevate the knowledge and awareness of a forecaster in the field.

Simon Clarke, Group Director of Forecasting, The Coca-Cola Company

Very comprehensive and well-organized touching on essential yet frequently overlooked elements of the business forecasting process. The book is arranged in bite-sized chunks, each delivering an important point, while the message is re-enforced by an accompanying graphic. Both practicing forecasters, and the managers who oversee or participate in the forecasting process, will find this a fast and invaluable read.

Michael Gilliland, Product Marketing Manager - SAS Forecasting. Author of The Forecasting Deal and principal-editor of Business Forecasting: Practical Problems and Solutions

Edition details

• Publisher: Troubador Publishing
• Publication date: 2018
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 1789013429
• ISBN 13: 9781789013429
• Binding: Paperback
• Number of pages: 192