Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets - Hardcover

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 158799190X ISBN 13: 9781587991905

Publisher: South-Western, 2004

Synopsis

Selected by Amazon.com and the Financial Times as one of the best business books of the year, Fooled by Randomness is an instant classic. It's uniqueness has drawn to it a wide following - from the New Yorker to the Pentagon. Already published in 14 languages, this new edition, expanded by over 80 pages, includes up-to-date advances from behavioral finance and cognitive science This book is about luck or more precisely how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill the world of trading Fooled by Randomness is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. Writting in an entertaining and narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. In this second edition, Taleb manages to use stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

About this title

Review

... it is important to remember, as Taleb shows in his charming and colorful book, that randomness can fool us... -- Wilson Quarterly

...A wise and readable guide to clearer thinking, drawing on insights from thinkers ranging from George Soros to Yogi Berra. -- Futurist, May/June 2002

...brilliant and entertaining... -- Buffalo Spree, January 2002

...explores why so many of us seem to underestimate the role of chance in creating the world's greatest success stories... -- Business a.m., November 8, 2001

...he’ll stretch your mind, make you smile and give your skepticism a healthy boost. -- SmartMoney, October 2002

A rare intellectual treat for the Christmas break. -- Director, December 2001

Antidote to the hundreds of titles that will be published this year promising unbeatable strategies for reaping rich rewards from the stock markets.... -- Sunday Times, 06 January, 2002

Fascinating. Stick with it: Taleb will grab you... -- Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

Fooled by Randomness is a fascinating read and, unusual in a book about such complex topics, an entertaining read as well. -- radicalacademy.com, 25 November, 2002

It is fun to read, refreshingly independently-minded and at the same time playful. -- Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance

Taleb tells interesting, well-wrought stories about individual behaviour. -- Publishers Weekly, September 10, 2001

Taleb will prompt readers to think carefully about the nature of success and the role of chance, both in finance and in life. -- Barron's, November 5, 2001

Taleb, by contrast, has constructed a trading philosophy predicted entirely on the existence of black swans... -- The New Yorker, April 22 & 29, 2002

The book struck a distinct chord as the author seemed to have various wonderful and illuminating insights with which I could readily identify. -- erivativesreview.com, September 28, 2001

Writing in a narrative and entertaining style, the author explores how random events can be disguised and preceived as non-random or determined. -- Investment Advisor, November 19, 2001

excellent and thought-provoking.... -- Financial Times, October 26, 2001

Synopsis

Just as coincidence can be confused with causality, so the lucky idiot can be confused with the skilled investor. The realities of randomness and probability almost guarantee that, out of a large pool of random investors, a Warren Buffett will emerge just by luck. Taleb (the founder of Empirica L.L.C., a trading firm and risk research organization)

Edition details

• Publisher: South-Western
• Publication date: 2004
• ISBN 10: 158799190X
• ISBN 13: 9781587991905
• Binding: Hardcover
• Language: English
• Edition number: 2
• Number of pages: 277