Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in the Markets and in Life - Hardcover

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas

Hardcover

ISBN 10: 1587990717 ISBN 13: 9781587990717

Publisher: W. W. Norton, 2001

Synopsis

In Fooled by Randomness, Taleb takes the reader on a fascinating journey through our perceptions of success, failure and luck. He takes the mathematics and psychology of probability and explains them with reference to the financial markets and life in general. Concepts such as survivorship bias, induction and our genetic lack of fitness for the modern world are laid before the reader in a highly entertaining and accessible narrative that sweeps across the trading rooms of New York and Chicago, passing along the way Solon (the Ancient World�s wisest man), the philosophy of Karl Popper and the pronouncements of Yogi Berra (�it ain�t over �till the fat lady sings�) amongst others. At the end of the journey, the reader is left with a deep understanding of the role randomness plays in all our lives.

About this title

About the Author

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an essayist principally concerned with the problems of uncertainty and knowledge. Taleb�s interests lie at the intersection of philosophy, mathematics, finance, literature, and cognitive science but he has stayed extremely close to the ground thanks to an uninterrupted two-decade career as a mathematical trader. Specializing in the risks of unpredicted rare events (�black swans�), he held senior trading positions in New York and London before founding Empirica LLC, a trading firm and risk research laboratory. Taleb is a fellow at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University where he has been teaching a class on the failure of models since 1999. His degrees include an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from the University of Paris Dauphine. The author�s ideas on skeptical empiricism have been covered by hundreds of articles around the world. Since childhood, Taleb has been obsessed with the defects of his own thinking. In addition to his scientific and literary interests, Taleb enjoys cafe lounging and museum hopping.

Reviews

In this look at financial luck, hedge fund manager Taleb (Dynamic Hedging) addresses the apparently irrational movement of money markets around the world. Using his own investing experience and examples of others' successes and disappointments, he discusses theories like Monte Carlo math (easy; considered cheating by purists) and the concept of Russian roulette. Taleb tells interesting, well-wrought stories about individual behavior: "While Nero has succeeded beyond his wildest dreams, both personally and intellectually, he is starting to consider himself as having missed a chance somewhere." While serious investors and mathematics enthusiasts will be intrigued, readers looking for practical investment strategies will be disappointed by this rambling intellectual discourse. Tables. 40,000-copy first printing; $150,000 marketing budget.

Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.

Taleb is a "quant," or mathematical trader, and an expert on financial derivatives who has made a name for himself in investing circles as a voluble critic of popular theories and conventional wisdom. He is also the author of Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options (1996). Taleb is fluent in seven languages and a reader of classical literature, an avocation that readily manifests itself in this meandering discourse on the roles of probability, luck, and risk in the markets and in life. Taleb examines how and why the attempt to determine cause and effect is continually hampered by random occurrences and our emotional responses to them. He freely shares his ideas and opinions, finding insights in the funeral of Jackie Onassis, B. F. Skinner's experiments on pigeons, Solon's warning, Karl Popper's work, George Soros, Darwinism, the O. J. Simpson trial, Pascal's wager, the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, the trading floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, birthdays, taxicabs, and especially the works of ancient Greek philosophers. David Rouse
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved

Edition details

• Publisher: W. W. Norton
• Publication date: 2001
• Language: English
• ISBN 10: 1587990717
• ISBN 13: 9781587990717
• Binding: Hardcover
• Edition number: 1
• Number of pages: 220